Oppenheimer Initiates Outperform on Centene, Sees Turnaround Potential After Guidance Shock

Centene Corporation (NYSE:CNC) is one of the stocks that look extremely cheap on paper. On July 15, 2025, Oppenheimer initiated coverage with an Outperform rating, setting a fresh price target (exact target unspecified), positioning Centene as a recovery-backed opportunity amid healthcare volatility.

This stand-out call emerged just weeks after Centene dramatically withdrew its 2025 earnings guidance, citing unexpected spikes in Medicaid and Marketplace costs, which led to a sharp stock drop of nearly 40% on July 2. Oppenheimer’s move suggests confidence that management’s repricing strategy and cost control efforts will turn the tide in the next 12–18 months.

That guidance pull followed Centene’s shocking second-quarter adjusted loss of $0.16 per share, missing estimates, even as revenue surged ~22% to $48.7 billion. The company’s health benefits ratio soared to 93%, well above projections, highlighting the pressure from rising underwriting costs and ACA risk-adjustment shortfalls.

Oppenheimer’s initiation of Outperform in mid‑July, at what many view as rock-bottom valuation levels, anchors the narrative: here’s a high-profile analyst betting on a turnaround after risk-adjustment shocks.

Centene, based in St. Louis, delivers Medicaid, Medicare Advantage, ACA Marketplace, and correctional health services across the U.S., making it deeply exposed to federal policy shifts and enrollment dynamics.

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Disclosure: None.