Pagaya Q2 Earnings on the Cards: A Smart Buy or Risky Bet?

Pagaya Technologies Ltd. PGY is scheduled to announce second-quarter 2025 earnings on Aug. 7.

In the first quarter, PGY delivered a robust performance, with total revenues and other income increasing 18.2% year over year to a record $290 million. This was driven by a rise in revenues from fees. We believe the company to have recorded a similar performance this time.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGY’s second-quarter revenues is pegged at $323.8 million, which implies a 29.4% year-over-year improvement.

In the past 30 days, the consensus estimate for earnings for the to-be-reported quarter has been revised 11.3% upward to 69 cents. The estimate indicates significant growth from the prior-year quarter’s reported number.

Estimate Revision Trend

Pagaya does not have a very impressive earnings surprise history. The company’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in only two of the trailing four quarters, with the average beat being 12.9%.

Earnings Surprise History

Other Key Q2 Estimates for Pagaya

Supported by improved economics in the company’s personal loan and auto verticals, revenues from fees are expected to have improved in the second quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is $306 million, indicating a 25.9% year-over-year rise.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for network volume of $2.53 billion implies growth of 10% from the prior-year quarter’s reported number. Also, the company expects second-quarter network volume between $2.3 billion and $2.5 billion.

PGY’s growth strategy focuses on expanding products to boost partner customer value, enhancing monetization of existing partnerships and adding new enterprise lending partners, especially large U.S. banks and auto captives. Supported by this, total revenues and other income are anticipated to have increased in the quarter.

Management expects total revenues and other income of $290-$310 million.

Adjusted EBITDA is expected between $75 million and $90 million. The company expects GAAP net income between breakeven and $10 million.

What Our Model Unveils for Pagaya

Per our proven model, the chances of Pagaya beating earnings estimates this time are high. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is the case here, as you can see below.

Pagaya has an Earnings ESP of +2.19%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

PGY sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

PGY’s Price Performance & Valuation

Pagaya shares delivered a solid performance in the second quarter, outperforming the S&P 500 Index’s growth. Also, the stock outperformed key peers like LendingTree TREE and LendingClub LC.

2Q25 PGY Price Performance

LendingClub released second-quarter results on July 29, while LendingTree released results on July 31.

PGY shares appear expensive relative to the industry. The stock is, at present, trading at a trailing 12-month price/book (P/B) of 5.00X. This is above the industry’s 3.58X.

Price-to-Book TTM

While the PGY stock is trading at a premium compared with LendingClub, it is trading at a discount compared with LendingTree. At present, LendingTree has a P/B of 5.67X, while LendingClub’s P/B is 1.27X.

How to Approach Pagaya Stock Before Q2 Earnings?

Pagaya’s core strength lies in its resilient and adaptable business model. The company has been expanding beyond its original focus on personal loans, moving into auto lending and point-of-sale financing. This reduces exposure to cyclical risk in any single loan category, making the business more stable across economic cycles.

Additionally, Pagaya has been diversifying its funding sources. It has built a robust network of more than 135 institutional funding partners to support the sale of its asset-backed securities. The use of forward flow agreements to secure a predictable and stable capital source helps it mitigate liquidity risks, especially during periods of rising inflation and interest rates.

Thus, the PGY stock looks like an attractive investment option now. Yet, those who intend to buy the stock now should keep an eye on macroeconomic factors and policy matters that are likely to influence the company’s future performance.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research