Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz on Peter’s Substack by Peter Thomason. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on KSPI. Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz's share was trading at $85.00 as of July 25^th. KSPI’s trailing P/E was 8.21 according to Yahoo Finance.

Kaspi (KSPI), the first Kazakh company to list on U.S. exchanges, is described as one of the most asymmetrical opportunities among large caps, offering a rare value play in a market priced for perfection. Originally a troubled Kazakh bank, Kaspi transformed under CEO Mikheil Lomtadze and Chairman Vyacheslav Kim into a dominant “super app,” combining services akin to Amazon, Visa, Venmo, Booking.com, and more. It now commands 95%+ monthly usage among Kazakhstan’s adults, with customer engagement and economic value per user compounding over time.

The business rests on a capital-light, highly profitable model, delivering 30%+ annual revenue growth, profit margins of 37–48%, and extraordinary returns on equity of 54–96%, while maintaining conservative leverage. Management, with 40% ownership, is deeply aligned with shareholders and has a long history of prioritizing customer trust — from staying open during the 2014 currency crisis to closing profitable services that didn’t meet customer satisfaction standards.

Kaspi’s radical customer obsession drives network effects and resilience, creating a durable moat and sticky user base. Expansion into Turkey provides upside optionality, but the investment case does not rely on it; the core Kazakhstan operations alone could grow earnings 2–4x through increased value per user and scaling of newer services like e-grocery and food delivery. Trading at just 7.7x trailing and 6.8x forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 0.5, Kaspi is priced for negative growth despite consistent execution and a culture of integrity, presenting an exceptional long-term opportunity with significant potential rerating for patient investors.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) by Antoni Nabzdyk in May 2025, highlighting its dominant super app ecosystem, sticky engagement, and asymmetric upside despite geopolitical risks. The stock has depreciated about 6% since then due to market weakness, but the thesis holds. Peter Thomason shares a similar view, emphasizing Kaspi’s exceptional returns, network effects, and Turkey expansion optionality.

Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 35 hedge fund portfolios held KSPI at the end of the first quarter which was 27 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of KSPI as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.