Burford Capital Limited (BUR): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Burford Capital Limited on Coughlin Capital’s Substack by Brian Coughlin. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on BUR. Burford Capital Limited's share was trading at $12.92 as of July 30^th. BUR’s trailing and forward P/E were 7.78 and 9.68, respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Burford Capital remains a polarizing stock due to its complex, high-stakes business model centered on financing legal claims with uncertain timelines and binary outcomes. Long seen as opaque and volatile, Burford’s model demands patience and a deep understanding of litigation processes across jurisdictions. However, a decisive court order on June 30—mandating Argentina to transfer its 51% stake in YPF to plaintiffs Petersen and Eton Park—has meaningfully changed the investment narrative.

Burford, which funded the claim in exchange for a portion of any recovery, saw a 20% stock rally on the news, yet shares merely returned to their prior-month level, reflecting lingering skepticism and latent upside. The court’s ruling, enforcing one of the largest sovereign judgments ever ($16.1 billion), was unequivocal in rejecting Argentina’s appeal prospects. Burford’s expected cut, estimated at 35–73% of net proceeds, could total $8–9 billion—over twice its market cap—unlocking the potential for massive value realization if enforcement succeeds.

A prior political risk scare tied to proposed U.S. tax changes on litigation proceeds was also neutralized in July, reducing near-term regulatory overhang. Despite Argentina’s resistance and political backlash, the legal momentum has shifted, validating Burford’s long game and the litigation-finance model itself. While risks remain—including future tax threats and disclosure mandates—this inflection point strengthens the company’s credibility.

With enforceable judgments now materializing and litigation finance gaining legitimacy, Burford stands as a uniquely positioned vehicle with asymmetric upside. For long-term investors comfortable with complexity and uncertainty, the current setup offers a deeply mispriced opportunity.

Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Burford Capital Limited by Coughlin Capital in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s leadership in litigation finance, strong historical returns, and potential upside from the YPF case. The stock has depreciated ~10% since then. Brian Coughlin shares an updated thesis but emphasizes the June 30 court order as a legal turning point.

Burford Capital Limited is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 31 hedge fund portfolios held BUR at the end of the first quarter which was 30 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of BUR as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.