Main Street Scheduled to Release Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

Main Street Capital Corporation MAIN is slated to announce second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 7, after market close. The company’s net investment income per share is likely to have declined, while total investment income is expected to have increased year over year.

In the last reported quarter, net investment income per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate. The results benefited from an improvement in the total investment income. However, an increase in expenses acted as a spoilsport.
 
Main Street has a weak earnings surprise history. Over the trailing four quarters, Main Street’s earnings lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate on two occasions, matched once and lagged once.

Main Street Capital Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Main Street Capital Corporation price-eps-surprise | Main Street Capital Corporation Quote

MAIN’s Earnings & Sales Projections for Q2

Per the company’s preliminary results for the second quarter, its earnings estimate was 98 cents to $1 per share, down from the prior quarter, reflecting an impact of 5-6 cents from NII-related federal and state income, excise, and other tax expenses. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MAIN’s earnings is pegged at 99 cents, stable over the past seven days. The consensus estimate indicates a 2% decrease from the prior-year reported figure.

The consensus estimate for sales is pegged at $137.2 million, which suggests a 3.8% rise.

Key Factors to Impact Main Street’s Q2 Performance

Main Street originated $196.2 million in new or increased commitments in its private loan portfolio during the second quarter. These investments were funded with a cost basis of $188.6 million. As of June 30, 2025, its private loan portfolio included total investments at a cost of around $2 billion. Hence, new and increased private loan commitments and investments during the quarter are anticipated to have aided the company’s top-line growth.

The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% during the second quarter. This is likely to have supported interest income for Main Street during the quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for interest, fee and dividend income from control investments is pegged at $55.4 million, implying a rise of 7.9% from the prior-year quarter. The consensus estimate for interest, fee and dividend income from affiliate investments is pegged at $24 million, indicating a 3.6% rise.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for interest, fee and dividend income from non-control and non-affiliate investments is pegged at $57.8 million, suggesting a marginal increase from the year-earlier quarter.

Further, per management, net fair value increases on the wholly-owned asset manager and the lower middle market ("LMM") investments from Main Street’s portfolio have led to a net increase in the fair value of the company’s investment portfolio, partially offset by net fair value decreases on the private loan and middle market investment portfolios. This increased net asset value (NAV) per share during the quarter. Management estimates NAV per share, as of June 30, 2025, to be between $32.27 and $32.33.

Further, given these preliminary results, management estimates generating a quarterly annualized return on equity of more than 17% in the quarter.

Main Street has been witnessing a rise in total expenses for the past several quarters. Amid rising inflation, compensation expenses are anticipated to have led to elevated total expenditures during the quarter under review.

Earnings Whispers for MAIN

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Main Street this time around. This is because Main Street does not have the right combination of two key ingredients — a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or higher — for increasing the odds of an earnings beat.

You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Main Street is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: Main Street carries a Zacks Rank #3. 

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Performance of MAIN Peers

Hercules Capital Inc.’s HTGC second-quarter 2025 net investment income of 50 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 47 cents. However, the bottom line declined 2% from the year-ago quarter.

HTGC’s results were primarily aided by an increase in total investment income. Also, the portfolio activity was robust in the quarter. However, an increase in expenses hurt the results to some extent.

Ares Capital Corporation’s ARCC second-quarter 2025 core earnings of 50 cents per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. The bottom line also reflected a decline of 18% from the prior-year quarter.

The results were primarily hurt by a decline in total investment income and higher expenses. Nonetheless, the company’s robust portfolio activities offered some support to ARCC.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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