Microchip Set to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Microchip Technology MCHP is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Aug. 7.

Microchip expects net sales between $1.02 billion and $1.07 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2026. Non-GAAP earnings are anticipated between 18 cents and 26 cents per share.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues is pegged at $1.05 billion, indicating a decline of 15.1% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. 

The consensus mark for fiscal first-quarter earnings is pegged at 24 cents per share, up by a penny over the past 30 days, suggesting a 54.7% year-over-year decline.

Microchip’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters, missing in the remaining one, delivering a negative earnings surprise of 2.42%, on average. 
 

Microchip Technology Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

Microchip Technology Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Microchip Technology Incorporated Quote

Let us see how things have shaped up for the upcoming announcement:

Key Factors to Note for MCHP’s Q1

Microchip has been suffering from persistent macroeconomic weakness and limited visibility. However, the company’s first-quarter fiscal 2026 results are likely to reflect improving inventory levels, which reached 251 days in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, up 15 days sequentially. Microchip expects inventory days between 215 and 225 at the end of the fiscal first quarter. 

Improving inventory is expected to have benefited gross margin in the to-be-reported quarter. Revenues are expected to have benefited from inventory correction at distributors and an increase in direct customer shipments.

Microchip benefits from strong design wins, particularly in the industrial, aerospace, and automotive sectors, with product developments like the 64-bit RISC-V processors and advanced Wi-Fi solutions. The company’s focus on high-growth areas like aerospace, defense, and AI, with innovations in microcontrollers, PCIe switches, and AI tools, is boosting adoption across automotive, industrial, and AI/ML markets. This is expected to have provided a boost to revenues in the to-be-reported quarter.

What Our Model Says

Per the Zacks model, the combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the exact case here.

Microchip has an Earnings ESP of -0.19% and a Zacks Rank #2. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings in their upcoming releases:

Lumentum LITE currently has an Earnings ESP of +5.12% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Lumentum shares are up 32.3% year to date. Lumentum is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Aug. 12.

Datadog DDOG has an Earnings ESP of +2.86% and has a Zacks Rank of #2 at present. 

Datadog shares have declined 2.7% year to date. Datadog is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 7.

Genpact G presently has an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and a Zacks Rank #2. 

Genpact shares have dropped 1% year to date. Genpact is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 7.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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