LLY Stock Sinks Despite Q2 Earnings Beat as Obesity Pill Disappoints

Eli Lilly and Company LLY reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share (“EPS”) of $6.31, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.61 per share. Earnings rose 61% year over year.

Revenues of $15.56 billion rose 38% year over year, driven by higher sales of Lilly’s popular tirzepatide medicines, diabetes drug Mounjaro and weight loss medicine, Zepbound. Total revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $14.749 billion.

In the reported quarter, net realized prices declined 6%, while volumes rose 42%.

While U.S. revenues rose 38% to $10.81 billion, ex-U.S. revenues rose 37% to $4.74 billion.

LLY’s Mounjaro and Zepbound Sales Outperform

Mounjaro recorded sales of $5.2 billion during the quarter, up 68% year over year. The reported sales figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.58 billion as well as our model estimate of $4.46 billion.

Mounjaro sales rose 37% to $3.3 billion in the United States, driven by increased demand, partially offset by lower pricing. International sales were $1.9 billion compared with $677.2 million in the year-ago quarter, benefiting from launches in new markets.

Zepbound recorded sales of $3.38 billion in the quarter, up 172% year over year, driven by increased demand, partially offset by lower pricing. Zepbound revenues beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.1 billion as well as our model estimate of $3.09 billion.

Mounjaro and Zepbound face strong competition from Novo Nordisk’s NVO semaglutide medicines, Ozempic for diabetes and Wegovy for obesity. Novo Nordisk announced its second-quarter results on Aug. 6. It beat estimates for earnings but missed the same for sales. Novo Nordisk lowered its sales and operating profit outlook for 2025 due to lower growth expectations for Wegovy and Ozempic for the second half of 2025. NVO expects lower sales of Wegovy due to increased competitive pressure, including from compounded GLP-1 alternatives and slower-than-expected market expansion.

Several companies like Amgen AMGN and Viking Therapeutics VKTX are also making rapid progress in the development of more potent and convenient GLP-1-based candidates in their clinical pipeline.

LLY’s Key Drugs’ Sales Numbers

Trulicity generated revenues worth $1.09 billion, down 12% year over year.  Sales of Trulicity beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.05 billion as well as our estimate of $924.8 million.

Jardiance sales declined 10% to $690 million. Jardiance beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $658.0 million as well as our model estimate of $639.9 million.

Taltz brought in sales of $847.6 million, up 3% year over year. Taltz missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $888 million as well as our model estimate of $914.8 million.

Verzenio generated sales of $1.49 billion in the reported quarter, up 12% year over year, driven by higher volume in the United States and outside the United States. Verzenio sales missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.55 billion as well as our model estimate of $1.57 billion.

Among the newer drugs, Jaypirca recorded $123.3 million in sales, up 34% year over year. Omvoh and Ebglyss recorded sales of $74.8 million and $86.8 million, respectively, in the quarter, compared with $37.2 million and $60.2 million in the previous quarter.

Sales of new Alzheimer’s drug Kisunla were $48.6 million in the second quarter compared with $21.5 million in the previous quarter.

LLY Ups 2025 Sales and EPS Guidance

Lilly raised its sales as well as earnings expectations for 2025.

In 2025, Lilly expects to record revenues in the range of $60.0 billion to $62.0 billion, up from the prior expectation of $58.0 billion to $61.0 billion.

The earnings per share guidance was also increased from a range of $20.78 to $22.28 to $21.75 to $23.00.

Lilly said its earnings guidance was based on the tariffs already in place and does not reflect any impact from potential tariffs on pharmaceutical imports or any other change in trade policies.

LLY’s Oral Obesity Pill Shows Less Weight Loss Than Expected

Lilly announced the much-awaited top-line data from the first of the two phase III studies evaluating orforglipron, its GLP-1 once-daily oral pill for obesity. The ATTAIN-1 study met the primary and all key secondary endpoints for all three doses tested at 72 weeks.

The highest dose (36 mg) of orforglipron delivered a weight loss of up to an average of 27.3 lbs (12.4%) versus 2.2 lbs with placebo, thereby meeting the study’s primary endpoint of superior body weight reduction compared to placebo. However, the 12.4% weight loss was less than investor expectations, resulting in the shares crashing in pre-market trading.

For some key secondary endpoints, 59.6% of the participants taking the 36 mg dose of orforglipron lost at least 10% of their body weight, while 39.6% of the participants taking the 36 mg dose lost at least 15% of their body weight. In addition, orforglipron showed improvements in a number of cardiovascular risk factors.

Lilly plans to submit regulatory applications to global authorities by the end of the year to seek approval of orforglipron.

NVO, LLY and VKTX are racing to introduce oral weight-loss pills as Wegovy and Zepbound are both injectable drugs. Novo Nordisk has already filed a new drug application (NDA) for an oral version of Wegovy and also has several next-generation candidates in its obesity pipeline, like CagriSema (a combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide) and an oral pill, amycretin (a dual GLP-1 and amylin receptor agonist). The FDA is expected to decide on the Wegovy oral formulation NDA in the fourth quarter.

Our Take on LLY’s Q2 Results

Lilly’s second-quarter results were strong as the company beat estimates for both earnings and sales. Sales of Lilly’s key drugs, Mounjaro, Zepbound, Jardiance and Trulicity beat estimates while Verzenio and Taltz missed expectations. Lilly’s new products also contributed to sales growth.

The company raised its financial outlook for the year, backed by a strong performance in the first half of the year, mainly the robust growth of Mounjaro and Zepbound. Sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound were below expectations in the second half of 2024, hurt by slower-than-expected growth and unfavorable channel dynamics. However, their sales picked up in the first half of 2025, driven by launches of the drugs in new international markets and improved supply from ramped-up production.

However, despite the second-quarter beat and year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues, shares crashed more around 12% in pre-market trading due to the underwhelming weight loss shown by its oral pill, orforglipron, in the obesity study. Investors were probably expecting orforglipron to match Wegovy’s average weight loss in a range of 13-15% or even exceed that percentage. Patient discontinuation rates in the study were also considered high. Orforglipron is being viewed as a key candidate in Lilly's obesity pipeline. Shares of NVO and VKTX shot up in response to Lilly’s obesity setback.

Lilly’s stock has declined 3% so far this year compared with a decrease of 4.2% for the industry.

LLY’s Zacks Rank

Eli Lilly currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).  You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Eli Lilly and Company Price and Consensus

Eli Lilly and Company price-consensus-chart | Eli Lilly and Company Quote

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