Where Will Tesla Be in 1 Year?

Key Points

• The decline in Tesla's EV sales is a story of declining Model Y sales, at least in the U.S.

• A new affordable Model Y will help, as will lower interest rates and a successful robotaxi rollout.

• Everything depends on Tesla's regulatory approval of its unsupervised full self-driving solution and its robotaxi business.

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It's a good idea to visualize what a company and a stock will look like in a year, because in essence, you are visualizing what another investor might be willing to pay for it then. In the case of Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), the range of possible outcomes is broad, and investors should consider it a high-risk but potentially high-reward stock. Here's what you need to know before buying the stock.

Tesla's fortunes depend on its robotaxi and unsupervised full self-driving offerings

Most investment valuations for Tesla proscribe significantly more value to the company from its robotaxi and full self-driving (FSD) software (supervised and unsupervised).

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In other words, while the electric vehicle business is critical to the company, it's not where most of the value lies. No one, except the most committed naysayers, values Tesla purely as a car company. It's a good idea to think of Tesla in a year in terms of the following considerations:

• Tesla's electric vehicle (EV) deliveries have declined by 13% year over year for the last two quarters as relatively high interest rates make buying cars more expensive, and CEO Elon Musk has acknowledged that Tesla "could have a few rough quarters" due to the removal of federal EV tax credits.
• Where will the robotaxi rollout be then, and what does it mean for the rest of the business?

Tesla's EV sales

The company's EV deliveries (equating to its sales volume, as Tesla sells direct to the consumer) are currently declining, and so is its market share globally and in the U.S. That said, there are some nuances in the sales figures that investors need to consider. There is a fascinating dynamic at play whereby Tesla is seeing a significant decline in its most popular SUV, Model Y, compared to its more sporty, but less expensive, sedan, Model 3.

According to Kelley Blue Book EV automotive sales data, Tesla Model 3 sales/deliveries were up almost 38% year to date in the first half on a year-over-year basis. Interpolating the data shows that Tesla's U.S. sales, excluding the Model Y, were up 14.1% year to date in the first half on a year-over-year basis.

This fact makes it somewhat implausible that Tesla, at least in the U.S., is facing a buyer's strike due to Musk's political opinions, as it's hard to imagine why buyers would decide to avoid buying the Model Y but not the Model 3.

The reality is that Tesla's sales decline in 2026 is really a story of the Model Y decline, mainly due to the release of price-competitive EV SUVs, and a pause in sales as deliveries of the refreshed Model Y only started in March.

Image source: Getty Images.

Naturally, the company is aware of the price competitiveness issue, and it's not a coincidence that the new affordable model, set to be available in the fourth quarter, is just a Model Y, according to Musk, albeit it's likely to be a pared-down version.

All told, Musk has said Tesla could have a few rough quarters, and the removal of the EV tax credit is significant, and Tesla's Model Y refresh, at least on initial view, doesn't look like it's enough to turn sales around. On the other hand, Tesla will face easier sales comparisons for the Y next year, as the affordable Model Y is set to go on sale and interest rates might be lower.

There are a range of possibilities, but not all of them are negative. Perhaps the safest conclusion is that Tesla will still dominate the U.S. market (current EV market share in the mid 40% range). Still, its operating profit margin will remain under pressure (currently just 4.1% in the second quarter) as affordable models are likely to come with lower margins.

Image source: Getty Images.

Robotaxis and unsupervised full self-driving are the key

On the recent earnings call, Musk stated, "I think we will probably have autonomous ride-hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year." And in the earnings release, the company noted "Our purpose-built Robotaxi product -- Cybercab ... is scheduled for volume production starting in 2026."

A snapshot of Tesla in a year could show the following:

• A massively expanded robotaxi service, which in turn encourages sales of its FSD software and sales of Tesla vehicles (as buyers warm to the idea of potentially transforming their cars into robotaxis).
• Tesla gearing up for the production of its dedicated robotaxi product, Cybercab, in 2026.

Image source: Getty Images.

Tesla in a year

A negative snapshot sees ongoing sales declines due to an aging lineup of cars, notably the Model Y, and a slow robotaxi rollout, and ongoing delays for regulatory approval of unsupervised, fully autonomous ride sharing (in this case, Tesla's unsupervised FSD). Musk thinks unsupervised FSD will be available in "certain geographies" by the end of 2025, but the doubters will point out his track record of being overly optimistic.

A more positive scenario sees Tesla's sales growing again, with unsupervised FSD approved in some areas, robotaxi rollouts spurring EV and FSD sales, and Cybercab production around the corner, while Wall Street analysts are scrambling to pencil in assumptions for a long stream of explosive growth from robotaxi revenue sharing.

The answer lies somewhere in between the two, with the long-term potential from robotaxis/FSD making Tesla an attractive stock for risk-tolerant investors.

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Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.