Rigetti Pre-Q2 Earnings Analysis: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Rigetti Computing RGTI is slated to release second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 12, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for loss per share and revenues is pegged at 6 cents and $1.91 million, respectively.

The earnings estimate, which has remained stable over the past 30 days, indicates 14.3% growth year over year. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decline of 38.2%.

The consensus mark for 2025 revenues is pegged at $8.8 million, implying a decline of 18.6% year over year, and the same for loss per share is pinned at 5 cents, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 86.1%. RGTI surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate once, missed once, and met expectations twice in the trailing four quarters, resulting in an average earnings surprise of negative 7.5%.

Q2 Earnings Whispers for Rigetti

Per our proven model, a stock with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy), or 3 (Hold), along with a positive Earnings ESP, has higher chances of beating estimates. This is not the case here, as you can see below.

Earnings ESP: RGTI has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors to Note Ahead of RGTI’s Q2 Results

During the first quarter of 2025, Rigetti management emphasized continued progress on its technology roadmap, which could influence the upcoming second-quarter performance. The company highlighted its 36-qubit Ankaa-class system, which achieved a two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5%, its highest to date. This technical milestone is expected to support the development of the Ankaa-3 system, targeted for later in 2025, with the goal of delivering improved performance and stability. Management also noted that early customer engagement with the 36-qubit system is underway, and the insights gained are expected to help accelerate product refinements and commercialization efforts. Investors may look for updates on adoption trends and any expansion of customer programs in the next reporting period.

From a business development perspective, Rigetti is focusing on converting its technological advancements into revenue-generating contracts. In the first quarter, the company continued work on several government and research partnerships, while also exploring commercial opportunities. Management mentioned that certain contracts and collaborations are expected to progress in 2025, potentially laying the groundwork for a stronger second half of the year. For the upcoming results, investors should watch for new deal announcements, expansion of existing programs, or updates on the timeline for scaling customer deployments, especially in markets where quantum capabilities are gaining early traction.

Financially, Rigetti ended the prior quarter with a solid cash position, supported by disciplined expense management and ongoing efforts to optimize its cost structure. Management reaffirmed its commitment to balancing research and development investment with prudent cash use, aiming to extend its runway while advancing toward commercial-readiness milestones. For the second-quarter update, investors may want to track not only revenue performance but also operating expenses and cash burn trends, as these will be key indicators of the company’s ability to sustain its development pace without diluting shareholder value. Any signs of improved revenue visibility or longer-term contracts could help strengthen confidence in the company’s growth trajectory.

RGTI Price Performance & Valuation

On a year-to-date basis, shares of RGTI, IonQ IONQ and D-WAVE QUANTUM QBTS have gained 1.1%, 0.1 and 101.1%, respectively. The broader Internet Software industry has advanced 23.5% over the same period.

Rigetti's Price Performance

In terms of valuation, RGTI trades at a Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 21.64, significantly higher than IonQ (9.29) and Quantum Computing Inc. (7.11). Despite IonQ and Quantum Computing offering lower multiples, RGTI’s premium reflects stronger growth expectations.

RGTI vs IONQ

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

RGTI vs QBTS

Should You Buy Rigetti Stock Ahead of Q2 Results?

Rigetti continues to make steady progress on its technology roadmap, marked by the strong performance of its 36-qubit Ankaa-class system and early engagement with customers. The development of the Ankaa-3 system remains on track, with expectations for improved performance and stability later in 2025. While these advancements strengthen the company’s long-term positioning, much of the near-term upside appears fairly reflected in the stock. Financial discipline remains evident, although revenue growth is still at an early stage and closely tied to the pace of customer adoption.

Additionally, while government and research partnerships provide a solid foundation, meaningful commercial revenue contribution is still evolving. The company’s ability to convert technical milestones into long-term contracts will be a key factor for sustaining growth. Given these considerations and pending confirmation of broader customer uptake and revenue visibility in the second half of the year, investors may continue to hold the stock. However, new investors might prefer to wait for clearer signs of operating leverage and traction beyond early-stage engagements before building a position.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research