The road ahead for the stock market is unclear. The health of the labor market is not strong. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman recently indicated that she is considering three interest rate cuts this year, due to concerns about the health of the job market and the overall U.S. economy.
Bowman indicated that price increases stemming from tariffs are likely to have a one-time effect. Since monetary policy takes time to impact the economy, she said it is okay to tolerate a short-term spike in inflation readings and ease policy rate to prevent labor market weakness.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also said lately that the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates in the coming months due to a weakening labor market, despite near-term inflation pressures from tariffs.
Volatility may become the name of the game thanks to a host of factors, ranging from chances of a spike in inflation in the United States, tariff tensions, fears of a slowdown in China and the resultant pressure on supply chain and global growth, and geopolitical issues.
Due to these uncertainties, money-market-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) may gain. Investors should note that such ultra-short-term bond ETFs have lower interest rate risks. Hence, we believe cash and short-dated fixed income may play a greater role in adding stability to a portfolio.
High Yield Along With Lower Interest Rate Risks: Winning Proposition
As of Aug. 8, 2025, the yield on the one-month U.S. Treasury note was 4.48%, higher than the 10-year note (i.e., 4.27%). This means that the shorter-duration money market instruments are yielding more.
This puts focus on the ultra-short-term corner of the bond market. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like Enhanced Short-Maturity Strategy ETF MINT, Short Maturity Bond iShares ETF NEAR, Ultrashort Term iShares ETF ICSH and iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF SGOV are lined up for gains.
The annual yield is 4.91% for the fund MINT, 4.73% for NEAR, 4.83% for ICSH and 4.44% for SGOV. This means that these funds offer a pretty high current income.
The ETF ICSH has a low effective duration of 0.56 years, while the ETF NEAR has an effective duration of 1.96 years. The ETF MINT has an effective duration of 0.25 years and SGOV has an effective duration of 0.11 years. Such short durations alleviate the interest rate risks associated with bond investing.
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PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active ETF (MINT): ETF Research Reports iShares Short Duration Bond Active ETF (NEAR): ETF Research Reports iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV): ETF Research ReportsThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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