Qualcomm Just Passed 1 Major Test, But Can It Pass the Next?

After logging its best rally in more than a year, with a 35% run from April through July, Qualcomm Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) looked like it was about to give it all back.

A post-earnings dip in late July sent shares down 10%, sliced through their rising support line, and had investors bracing for the kind of collapse that defined much of the company’s history.

For long-term holders, it felt like the same old story: the broader market is at record highs, peer semiconductors like NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ: NVDA) are powering ahead, yet Qualcomm, with its attractive valuation and strong fundamentals, can’t seem to get out of its own way.

But then something unusual happened. Instead of rolling over, the bulls dug in.

Bulls Defend QCOM's $145 Level

Over almost seven straight sessions at the start of August, Qualcomm tested and retested the $145 level. Buyers stepped in to stop the slide, refusing to let shares close lower. This show of resilience marked a sharp contrast to what we saw earlier in the year, when Qualcomm tumbled more than 30% between February and April.

That defense looks increasingly like a turning point. Bears betting on a repeat of that collapse now face a different setup—one where the uptrend from April remains salvageable, if the bulls can follow through. So far, they’ve managed to tack on more than 10% since their low at the start of the month, and, for now at least, the bears are nowhere to be seen. 

The next test is obvious: Qualcomm must retake and close above $165. That’s the level where the July rally topped out, and doing so would mark a fresh higher high, re-establishing the stock’s technical momentum. If it fails, there’s a good chance we’ll see signs of reversal creep in. 

Fundamentals Remain Strong Despite Qualcomm’s Recent Pullback

The irony of Qualcomm’s recent selloff is that it came after an earnings report that beat expectations on both revenue and profit. Guidance may not have been spectacular, but the numbers were far from disappointing.

Management has been increasingly vocal about how the company’s growth opportunity extends far beyond its key customer, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), whose plans for in-house chip development have long been a bearish talking point.

Qualcomm’s leadership has instead emphasized its multiple business segments, which are expanding at a healthy pace. Opportunities in automotive, IoT, and AI-enabled devices are expected to grow at scale. As CEO Cristiano Amon recently put it, the potential market Qualcomm is targeting “far exceeds” the contribution Apple once made.

Investors who’ve been burned by past underperformance may be slow to give credit, but the operational story is intact. Earnings momentum is positive, cash flows are strong, and the stock trades at just 14x earnings, a deep discount compared to the broader semiconductor sector, where multiples often sit two, three, and even four times higher.

Analyst Backing Points Higher for Qualcomm Stock

Analysts are lining up on the bullish side as well. Piper Sandler reiterated its Overweight rating after Qualcomm’s most recent report, assigning a fresh $175 price target.

That implies a gain of about 10% from current levels, and more importantly, it positions Qualcomm comfortably above the $165 technical barrier.

They’re not alone.

JPMorgan, Rosenblatt, and Mizuho have all issued bullish ratings in recent weeks, with the top end of targets stretching as high as $225.

That represents more than 40% upside from where shares sit today, making Qualcomm an attractive option if you can stomach its history of lacklustre performance. 

What Comes Next for Qualcomm Stock After Holding Key Support

The market has delivered a rare gift for investors on the sidelines: a fundamentally strong semiconductor leader trading at a beaten-down valuation, while its peers continue to rip higher. Qualcomm has already passed its first significant test by defending the $145 line. The next test is whether it can retake $165 and confirm the uptrend is back on track.

If it succeeds, the setup is ripe for a run toward $175 in the near term, with the potential to target $200 and beyond by year-end. If it fails this next test, the bears will likely press their advantage, though with buyers proving willing to step in aggressively, that scenario is looking less and less likely.

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