Greif Set to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Greif, Inc. GEF is scheduled to release third-quarter fiscal 2025 financial numbers after the closing bell on Aug. 27.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Greif’s total revenues for the quarter is pegged at $1.47 billion, indicating a 1.2% rise from the year-ago quarter’s reported level.

The consensus mark for earnings is pegged at $1.40 per share, indicating a 35.9% increase from the year-ago reported number. Earnings estimates have been unchanged in the past 60 days.

Greif’s Earnings Surprise History

GEF’s earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, while missing twice, the average negative surprise being 10.7%. This is depicted in the following chart.

Factors Likely to Have Shaped Greif’s Q3 Performance

In the first half of fiscal 2025, Greif’s volumes were driven by gains across two segments — Customized Polymer Solutions and Integrated Solutions. This strength helped offset lower volumes in the Durable Metal Solutions segment. The Sustainable Fiber Solutions segment also witnessed lower volumes in the fiscal second quarter after being positive in the fiscal first quarter.

Overall, the company’s volume increased 0.9% in the fiscal first quarter and dipped 1.4% in the second quarter. Pricing had 2.2% and 1.1% favorable impacts in the fiscal first and second quarters, respectively. Acquisitions (net by divestiture impact) added 3.9% and 1.7% to revenue growth in the fiscal first and second quarters.

For the fiscal second quarter, we anticipate similar trends and our model projects total revenue growth to be supported by 1% favorable pricing and a 1.6% contribution from acquisitions. However, it is likely to be offset by a 0.6% negative impact of foreign currency translation and 1% volume impacts.

In the Customized Polymer Solutions segment, volume rose 1.5% in the fiscal second quarter, led by a favorable product mix. The segment benefited from stronger demand in the agricultural and food and beverage end markets. Pricing was up 0.6%, offset by a 0.2% unfavorable foreign currency impact. Recent acquisitions contributed a substantial 13.6% increase to revenue growth.

Our model projects 13% growth for the Customized Polymer Solutions segment for the fiscal third quarter and pricing to be a favorable 0.2%. Acquisitions are expected to contribute 12.3% to the growth, with unfavorable currency impact expected to hurt revenues by 0.5%.

As a result, segment revenues are projected to reach $356 million in the fiscal third quarter , suggesting a 13% rise from the $315 million reported in the prior-year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to dip 5.7% to $47 million from $49.7 million a year ago.

In the Durable Metal Solutions segment, volumes were down 4.5% in the fiscal second quarter due to softness of the industrial end market. For the fiscal third quarter, our model projects a 3.9% drop in volumes, 2.4% unfavorable pricing and 0.9% negative foreign currency impact. This is expected to result in a 7.3% year-over-year decline in the segment’s revenues to $393 million. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA is expected at $43 million, indicating a 6.4% fall from the prior-year quarter’s $46 million.

The Sustainable Fiber Solutions segment’s volumes dipped 1.6% year over year in the fiscal second quarter. However, the segment reported a year-over-year improvement, driven by improving trends in containerboard and uncoated recycled paperboard and strong demand for bulk boxes and partitions. 

Our model projects the segment’s revenues at $645 million for the fiscal second quarter, suggesting 3.2% year-over-year growth. This will likely be driven by a 4.6% favorable price impact, offset by a negative 0.3% foreign currency impact and a volume impact of 1.1%. The segment’s adjusted EBITDA is expected at $85.8 million, indicating a rise of 13.3% from the prior-year quarter’s actual. 

The Integrated Solutions segment’s revenues are projected at $75 million for the fiscal third quarter, implying a 16.9% drop from the $91 million reported in the year-ago quarter. In the fiscal second quarter, volume growth was 7.3% and we expect 6.3% volume growth for the third quarter. This reflects strength in key product groups (paints, linings, adhesives and caps/closures).

However, this gain will be offset by an unfavorable pricing of 4.5%, a negative 1.8% impact of foreign currency and a 16.8% impact of the Delta divestiture. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $38 million, whereas it reported $19.6 million in the year-earlier quarter.

What the Zacks Model Unveils for GEF Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Greif this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here.

You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: The Earnings ESP for Greif is 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: Greif currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

GEF Stock’s Price Performance

Greif’s shares have gained 10.2% in the past year compared with industry’s growth of 21.2%.

Recent Quarterly Performances of Other Packaging Stocks

Sealed Air Corporation SEE registered second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 89 cents, which surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 72 cents. The bottom line marked a 7% year-over-year improvement, attributed to improved operating leverage and continued business optimization.

Sealed Air’s total sales were $1.335 billion in the reported quarter, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.318 billion. Sales edged down 0.7% year over year. Pricing had a favorable impact of 0.5% and volumes were down 1.8% year over year. Currency had a positive impact of 0.5%. Our model predicted pricing to impact sales favorably by 0.1% and a volume decline of 1.7%.

Packaging Corporation of America PKG posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.48 in the second quarter of 2025, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.44. The reported figure was higher than Packaging Corp’s guidance of $2.41 in the quarter under review. Moreover, the bottom line increased 13% year over year. The upside was driven by higher prices and mixes in both segments.

Packaging Corp’s sales in the second quarter grew 4.6% year over year to $2.17 billion. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.16 billion.

Avery Dennison Corporation AVY delivered adjusted earnings of $2.42 per share in second-quarter 2025, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.38. The bottom line was flat year over year.

Avery Dennison’s total revenues dipped 0.7% year over year to $2.22 billion, marginally missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.23 billion.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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