Commvault Systems, Inc. (CVLT): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Commvault Systems, Inc. on Business Invest’s Substack by Francesco Ferrari. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CVLT. Commvault Systems, Inc.'s share was trading at $176.37 as of August 20^th. CVLT’s trailing and forward P/E were 98.53 and 42.92 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Commvault is a niche player operating at the intersection of enterprise software and cybersecurity, offering a range of solutions through its platform, with a focus on backup and recovery systems as well as data protection. Despite a solid product portfolio addressing critical enterprise needs, the company’s growth trajectory has been moderate, with a three-year revenue CAGR of 10.3%, falling short of the desired 20.3% target implied by a reverse DCF analysis. This gap suggests that while Commvault has a strong foundational business, the market is pricing in a more cautious near-term outlook, leaving the stock less compelling at current levels.

The stock is trading at $115.23, down approximately 35% from recent highs, reflecting the market’s tempered expectations for accelerated growth. Investors are advised to monitor the company’s ability to scale its platform, drive adoption, and capitalize on the growing enterprise cybersecurity and data protection market before considering a meaningful entry. While the underlying business remains valuable, and the solutions address essential enterprise challenges, the stock’s current valuation suggests that the upside is still contingent on stronger revenue acceleration and execution.

In the meantime, patient investors may wait for clearer catalysts, such as improved top-line momentum or operational efficiencies, to justify a higher valuation, as the current environment presents limited immediate upside despite the long-term potential of the enterprise software and cybersecurity intersection.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on Unity Software Inc. (U) by @AlphaSenseInc in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s dominance in mobile gaming, over 70% market share, and strategic expansion into enterprise sectors like automotive and architecture. The company's stock price has appreciated by 64.32% since our coverage, reflecting the market’s recognition of its mobile-first strategy and sticky user base. Francesco Ferrari shares a tempered view but emphasizes Commvault’s moderate growth and the need for revenue acceleration.

Commvault Systems, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 26 hedge fund portfolios held CVLT at the end of the first quarter which was 35 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of CVLT as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.