Hologic (HOLX) Down 0.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Hologic (HOLX). Shares have lost about 0.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Hologic due for a breakout? Well, first let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the recent catalysts for Hologic, Inc. before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late.

Hologic Surpasses Q3 Earnings and Revenue Estimates

Hologic, Inc. reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.08 in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, up 1.9% year over year. The metric surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 2.86%.

The adjustments include charges and benefits related to the amortization of acquired intangible assets, restructuring and integration/consolidation costs and many others. The company’s GAAP earnings per share was 86 cents in the quarter, which increased 4.9% year over year.

HOLX’s Q3 Revenues

Revenues totaled $1.02 billion in the quarter, up 1.2% year over year (0.4% at the constant exchange rate or CER). The top line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.68%.

However, following the earnings announcement, HOLX shares dropped 0.7% in yesterday’s after-hours session.

HOLX’s Q3 Revenues by Region

In the fiscal third quarter, U.S. revenues fell 0.6% to $760.7 million. This missed our model’s projection of $749.5 million.

International revenues amounted to $263.1 million, up 6.9% year over year (3.5% at CER). Our model’s projection was $252.3 million.

HOLX’s Segmental Breakdown of Q3 Revenues

Diagnostics

Revenues in the segment increased 1.8% year over year (up 0.9% at CER) to $448.9 million in the quarter, mainly driven by higher molecular diagnostics sales. Excluding COVID-19 revenues, organic Diagnostics revenues increased 3.9% on a reported basis. This compares with our model’s segmental projection of $436 million.

Within the division, Cytology & Perinatal revenues of $121.4 million dropped 2.2% at CER. This compares with our model’s segmental projection of $115.5 million.

Molecular Diagnostics revenues of $320.5 million increased 2.4% at CER. Our model forecast was $314.6 million.

Blood Screening revenues of $7 million fell 11.4% year over year at CER. Our model forecast for the business was $6 million.

Breast Health

The segment’s revenues decreased 5.1% from the year-ago period (down 5.8% at CER) to $365.2 million. The downside was due to lower sales of mammography capital equipment, as anticipated. Our model projected revenues of $366.8 million for this segment.

Excluding the divested SSI and acquired Endomagnetics businesses, organic Breast Health revenues decreased 10.1% (10.8% at constant currency).

GYN Surgical

Surgical revenues grew 7.1% year over year (6.3% at CER) to $178.4 million, primarily driven by the acquired Gynesonics business and strong international sales. Our model projected revenues of $177.3 million in this segment.

Skeletal Health

Revenues surged 64.7% year over year (62.1% at CER) to $31.3 million. Our model projected revenues of $26.6 million for this segment.

Hologic’s Operational Update

In the fiscal third quarter, the company-provided adjusted gross margin decreased 80 basis points (bps) to 60.3%, mainly due to the product mix and increased reserves.

Hologic’s adjusted operating margin was 30.1%, a contraction of 110 bps, due to expected margin dilution from the inclusion of Endomagnetics and Gynesonics results.

HOLX’s Financial Update

Hologic ended the third quarter of fiscal 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $1.74 billion compared with $1.43 billion at the end of the first quarter.

Total long-term debt (including the current portion) was $2.51 billion compared with $2.52 billion at the second quarter-end.

Net cash provided by operating activities at the end of the fiscal third quarter was $702 million compared with $918.2 million a year ago.

Hologic’s Fiscal 2025 & Q4 View

Revenues for the full fiscal 2025 are now expected in the band of $4.08-$4.09 billion (earlier $4.05-$4.10 billion), representing a year-over-year increase of 1.3%-1.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 revenues is pegged at $4.08 billion.

Hologic now anticipates fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share in the range of $4.23-$4.26 (previously $4.15-$4.25). The updated projections indicate 3.7%-4.4% growth year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $4.19.

For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, the company forecasts revenues between $1.03 billion and $1.04 billion, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 4.3%-5.3% on a reported basis. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $1.04 billion.

Adjusted earnings per share is estimated between $1.09 and $1.12, which implies 7.9% to 10.9% growth year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric currently stands at $1.09.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates have trended upward during the past month.

VGM Scores

At this time, Hologic has a average Growth Score of C, a score with the same score on the momentum front. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock has a score of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for value investors.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of B. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending upward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions looks promising. Notably, Hologic has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Hologic belongs to the Zacks Medical - Instruments industry. Another stock from the same industry, Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), has gained 4.7% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended June 2025.

Thermo Fisher reported revenues of $10.86 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +3%. EPS of $5.36 for the same period compares with $5.37 a year ago.

Thermo Fisher is expected to post earnings of $5.51 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +4.4%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -0%.

Thermo Fisher has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) based on the overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions. Additionally, the stock has a VGM Score of F.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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