Prediction: Nvidia Will Deliver on This Crucial Promise in 2026 (and the Stock Will Soar)

Key Points

• Nvidia has seen strong demand for its Blackwell architecture, released last year, and the recently launched Blackwell Ultra.

• The company has made frequent innovation a priority.

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Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) has generated billions of dollars in earnings over the past few years thanks to its leadership in the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market. Like others, the tech company makes graphics processing units (GPUs) that drive major AI tasks such as the training and inferencing of models -- but what separates Nvidia from rivals is the fact that its GPUs are the fastest around.

Companies aiming to supercharge their AI projects have jumped on board and continue to line up to get in on the latest products that will make their AI programs more efficient. And that's why, in order to maintain its market position and keep growth going, Nvidia focuses on innovation.

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The company launched its Blackwell architecture last year, and the platform brought in $11 billion in its first quarter of commercialization. Just recently, the company released the update Blackwell Ultra, and Nvidia chief Jensen Huang says demand has been "extraordinary."

In spite of this momentum, some investors worry about the slowdown in the business' revenue growth (it's gone from the triple digits to the double digits in recent quarters) and the possibility that competition may weigh on future growth. But there's one key way it can stay ahead, and that's by delivering on a crucial promise that it has made to investors and customers. My prediction is that the company will do so in 2026, and this will lead to more gains for this top AI stock.

Image source: Getty Images.

Rubin will bring "breakthroughs"

So, first, let's take a look at the chip designer's pledge. Nvidia says it aims to update its chips on an annual basis, and it got the ball rolling with the Blackwell launch. The company has set out a road map of releases through 2028, and the next on the list is the Rubin architecture. In the latest earnings call, Huang said he would wait until his company's GTC event -- one is set for October and another for March -- to talk about the product in detail, but he said Rubin will bring "breakthroughs."

He also says it's important for customers to build out on an annual pace to integrate his company's latest updates since each will help them reduce costs and maximize revenue over time due to gains in efficiency and performance.

My prediction is that the chipmaker will fulfill its promise of annual releases, bringing Rubin to market next year, and I say this because Rubin chips are on track to reach that goal. The company just announced that it has passed the "tape out" phase -- when the final chip design is sent to a manufacturer for actual production. The elements in production at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing include the Vera central processing unit, the Rubin GPU, switches, and a silicon photonics processor.

Using Blackwell as a guide

Now, let's talk about the second part of my prediction, and that's the idea that the stock will climb. If the company releases Rubin when expected, it may be accompanied by comments about demand.

And if Blackwell and Blackwell Ultra are a guide, demand may be high, which would drive sales in the later quarters of the year and into the following year. On top of this, thanks to the rapid Blackwell scale up, the chipmaker is becoming more accustomed to the process, so it likely will gain in efficiency.

That should favor margin growth. As it stands, Nvidia has been able to keep gross margin above 70%, even through the Blackwell launch.

And this -- a new product on the market that's driving earnings increases -- could lead to another wave of gains for the shares.

Of course, the Rubin story may not unfold exactly as planned. Any glitch in the process from this point forward could upset the timeline, and that sort of news might hurt the stock's performance, at least in the near term. As I mentioned earlier, it's key to keep up the pace of innovation to maintain market leadership.

But, considering the business' design experience and TSMC's production capabilities, it's fair to be optimistic about the outcome at this stage of the process. And that's why I predict Nvidia will deliver on its innovation promises in 2026 -- and the stock, after already climbing more than 1,000% over the past three years, could score another big win for investors.

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Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.