Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.  on Value investing subreddit by mrmrmrj. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CBRL. Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. 's share was trading at $62.33 as of August 27^th. CBRL’s trailing and forward P/E were 24.16 and 18.90 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

Cracker Barrel is at a pivotal juncture following a challenging period for management and investors. The CEO appears to be on thin ice, facing immense pressure after a failed rebrand, with activist investors having long warned against the move. One activist, once holding nearly 5 million shares and now down to 900,000, underscores the intensity of investor dissatisfaction. The next two quarters are critical—if operational performance does not improve, the CEO is expected to be replaced, a development that the market is likely to reward.

Even if metrics rebound, the CEO may still depart, though under more favorable circumstances. The stock’s performance is closely tied to these outcomes: a CEO exit or operational improvement could trigger significant upside, while continued underperformance poses downside risk. Scenario analysis points to $80 as a reasonable 12-month target if either better metrics emerge or the CEO is replaced, representing a baseline recovery with roughly a 70% probability. A continued failure could drag the stock toward $50, reflecting a 20% chance of downside.

In the optimistic scenario where the rebrand succeeds, shares could reach $100, although this outcome is assigned only a 10% likelihood. Aggregating these probabilities, the probability-weighted stock target comes to $76, implying approximately 33% upside from current levels. Overall, Cracker Barrel represents a high-stakes situation where governance, operational execution, and investor sentiment are tightly intertwined, creating a potential opportunity for investors willing to navigate the near-term uncertainty with clear catalysts driving both risk and reward.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) by din0_os in March 2025, which highlighted strong revenue growth, same-restaurant sales gains, and aggressive expansion plans. The company's stock price has depreciated approximately 21.46% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as CAVA continues scaling its fast-casual concept. mrmrmrj shares a similar perspective on Cracker Barrel, emphasizing CEO pressure and governance as key catalysts.

Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc.  is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 29 hedge fund portfolios held CBRL at the end of the first quarter which was 21 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of CBRL as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.