Advanced Micro Devices' 2026 Forecasts Are Way Too Low

Suppose the channel checks reported by Wedbush concerning the supply-demand imbalance for NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ: NVDA) AI GPUs are correct. In that case, it isn’t a matter of Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD) taking share but claiming it.

According to them, the checks in August revealed a 10-to-1 imbalance, which leaves ample market share to be taken. In this environment, NVIDIA will surely ramp production to meet the need, but it won’t be able to increase production by 1000% soon, leaving AMD in a position to sell its products to those who can’t wait.

And some will not want to wait. Not only is the drive to build out AI infrastructure, train models, and launch applications pressing businesses to act, but AMD GPUs offer advantages, and there is a catalyst on the horizon.

Among the benefits is a superior memory capacity and bandwidth, along with better cost-to-performance ratios. These advantages make AMD a better choice for many applications, including inference and data centers. But there’s a catch: AMD’s hurdle and catalyst.

Advanced Micro Devices: Turning a Hurdle Into a Springboard for Growth

NVIDIA remains the top choice today due to its advanced ecosystem and rack-scale capability, which enables it to deliver products at scale and makes it the reliable choice. The catalyst for AMD is the launch of its MI400 line, which is expected next year. It will include a more advanced ecosystem, tuned for AI development, and rack-scale solutions.

Acquisitions, including Xilinx and Pensado Systems in 2022 and ZT Systems in 2025, position the company to provide comprehensive AI systems at scale across use-case scenarios. The bottom line is that AMD is about to lock the door to its GPU cash flow, and the demand may be overwhelming. 

The opportunity for investors is significant. AMD reported $3.2 billion in Q2 data center revenue compared to NVIDIA’s $41.1 billion, suggesting it could grow the segment by more than 1000% literally overnight and still leave demand unmet.

That puts quarterly revenue growth at over 316% relative to Q2, excluding the strengths in other segments, and stronger performance is possible.

As of early September 2025, the consensus estimates forecast AMD’s revenue growth to slow sequentially to 20% in 2026 and 17% in 2027. 

The analysts' sentiment and price target trends are more robust, underpinning what may be an explosive stock price increase later in 2025 or in early 2026.

The data tracked by MarketBeat reveals increased coverage, firming sentiment pegged at Moderate Buy, and a rising price target.

The price target is of particular interest because it has increased by $50, or nearly 40%, since the Q2 earnings release, with recent revisions leading to the high-end range. That puts this market near $215, just shy of a record high. 

AMD’s Q3 Results May Catalyze This Market

AMD’s move into rack-scale solutions is a catalyst for 2026; the catalysts for 2025 have been numerous and include the upcoming Q3 release. The estimates have begun to rise, but are likely lagging as they were in Q2.

The company will outperform the figures, forecasting 27% top-and-bottom line growth, and provide a bullish update on its product cycle. As it stands, the company is expected to release the MI400 line sometime early to mid-next year. 

AMD’s 2025 stock price rally may be only half over. The stock pulled back in late August and early September, but this move is a healthy pullback in an otherwise robust market. The latest MACD peaks are convergent with the high and the most extreme peaks on record, revealing a historically strong market.

The price action will likely set a fresh high in this scenario and then continue higher due to its growth outlook and cash flow. 

A move to new highs is significant for technical traders. It confirms the August/September pullback as a consolidation/continuation signal and will trigger new money. The next significant target for resistance is near the all-time high, which may be reached before the late-October Q3 release date. 

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