Can O Stay Resilient Amid Soft Economy With a Stable Rent Base?

Amid a weaker-than-expected job report and a softening economy, rate cut hopes have gathered steam, and this brings our attention to REITs like Realty Income O. Known as “The Monthly Dividend Company,” Realty Income has deliberately built its portfolio around non-discretionary, low-price-point and service-oriented retail tenants, a strategy designed to deliver resilient and predictable cash flows. Its holdings include grocery stores, dollar stores, convenience retailers, drugstores and quick-service restaurants.

As of the second quarter of 2025, 73% of annualized base rent came from essential goods and services, while about 90% of rent was recession-resistant or insulated from e-commerce disruption. Non-discretionary tenants generate steady traffic even in downturns as households prioritize necessities, while value-focused retailers benefit in inflationary periods. Service-oriented tenants, such as healthcare, automotive and fitness, strengthen portfolio durability by offering e-commerce-resistant services.

Scale enhances these defensive attributes. Realty Income manages more than 15,600 properties across 91 industries and 1,600+ tenants, limiting reliance on any single operator. Operating results confirm the strategy’s effectiveness. In the second quarter of 2025, portfolio occupancy reached 98.6%, exceeding its long-term median, reflecting the stability of necessity retail demand.

Leasing dynamics also point to resilience. The company achieved a 103.4% rent recapture rate across 346 leases, with 93% of leasing activity generated from renewals by existing tenants in the second quarter. This indicates strong retention and modest rent growth at rollover, particularly among non-discretionary and service-oriented operators.

However, challenges remain. While lower rates could be a tailwind, near-term AFFO growth may remain muted amid economic uncertainty and compressed acquisition spreads. Additionally, Realty Income expects 75 basis points of rent loss in 2025, driven partly by credit risks tied to tenants acquired through past M&A transactions.

Where Are Other Retail REITs Focusing?

During uncertain times, the grocery component saves the grace of retail REITs, and Kimco Realty Corporation KIM and Regency Centers Corporation REG focus on such tenants.

In the second quarter of 2025, Kimco achieved its target of 86% ABR from its grocery-anchored portfolio from 78% in 2020. With a well-located and largely grocery-anchored portfolio that offers essential goods and services, this retail REIT is witnessing healthy leasing activity. In the quarter, Kimco executed 506 leases, aggregating 2.7 million square feet in its consolidated operating portfolio. 

Regency has a high-quality open-air shopping center portfolio, with more than 85% grocery-anchored neighborhood and community centers. This focus on building a premium portfolio of grocery-anchored shopping centers is a strategic fit because such centers are usually necessity-driven and attract dependable traffic. In uncertain times, the grocery component has benefited retail REITs, and Regency has numerous industry-leading grocers as tenants.

O’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Shares of Realty Income have risen 11% year to date against the industry’s decline of 4.6%.

From a valuation standpoint, O trades at a forward 12-month price-to-FFO of 13.60, below the industry. It carries a Value Score of D.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for O’s 2025 and 2026 funds from operations per share has been revised marginally downward over the past month.

At present, Realty Income carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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