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Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: Here's Why

By Zacks Equity Research | September 08, 2025, 7:33 PM

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) closed at $39.58 in the latest trading session, marking a -3.62% move from the prior day. This change lagged the S&P 500's 0.21% gain on the day. On the other hand, the Dow registered a gain of 0.25%, and the technology-centric Nasdaq increased by 0.45%.

Prior to today's trading, shares of the Mexican food chain had lost 0.92% lagged the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 5.92% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.07%.

The upcoming earnings release of Chipotle Mexican Grill will be of great interest to investors. The company's earnings report is expected on October 29, 2025. In that report, analysts expect Chipotle Mexican Grill to post earnings of $0.3 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 11.11%. Meanwhile, the latest consensus estimate predicts the revenue to be $3.05 billion, indicating a 9.34% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

For the full year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $1.21 per share and revenue of $12.13 billion, which would represent changes of +8.04% and +7.17%, respectively, from the prior year.

Investors should also pay attention to any latest changes in analyst estimates for Chipotle Mexican Grill. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the business outlook.

Empirical research indicates that these revisions in estimates have a direct correlation with impending stock price performance. To utilize this, we have created the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model that integrates these estimate changes and provides a functional rating system.

The Zacks Rank system, which varies between #1 (Strong Buy) and #5 (Strong Sell), carries an impressive track record of exceeding expectations, confirmed by external audits, with stocks at #1 delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, there's been a 0.06% fall in the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. Chipotle Mexican Grill is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

Digging into valuation, Chipotle Mexican Grill currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 33.99. For comparison, its industry has an average Forward P/E of 20.22, which means Chipotle Mexican Grill is trading at a premium to the group.

It is also worth noting that CMG currently has a PEG ratio of 2.09. The PEG ratio bears resemblance to the frequently used P/E ratio, but this parameter also includes the company's expected earnings growth trajectory. As of the close of trade yesterday, the Retail - Restaurants industry held an average PEG ratio of 2.31.

The Retail - Restaurants industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector. This industry, currently bearing a Zacks Industry Rank of 191, finds itself in the bottom 23% echelons of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank evaluates the power of our distinct industry groups by determining the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks forming the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

Be sure to use Zacks.com to monitor all these stock-influencing metrics, and more, throughout the forthcoming trading sessions.

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Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG): Free Stock Analysis Report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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