McDonald's CapEx Steps Higher: What's Supporting the ROI Case?

McDonald’s Corporation MCD exited 2025 with an acceleration in capital investment plans, as management outlined a higher level of spending tied primarily to unit growth and future development. The company guided to 2026 capital expenditures of approximately $3.7-$3.9 billion, up from about $3.4 billion in 2025, reflecting an increased pace of new restaurant openings and continued investment across the development pipeline. Management stated the higher spending was part of its long-term growth strategy.

The return profile of this investment continues to center on unit growth economics. McDonald’s opened roughly 2,275 restaurants globally in 2025 and plans approximately 2,600 gross openings in 2026, keeping the company on track to reach 50,000 restaurants worldwide by 2027-end. Management stated that new restaurants are performing in line with expectations, including in mature markets such as the United States, where population migration and underpenetrated trade areas continue to support incremental development opportunities. 

In addition to new restaurant openings, capital spending increased due to specific factors affecting the development schedule. Management noted that 2025 capital expenditures came in modestly above initial expectations, reflecting foreign exchange impacts and progress on restaurants scheduled to open in 2026 and 2027. These expenditures relate to work completed ahead of openings across the development pipeline. 

Looking ahead, management expects net restaurant growth in 2026, including carryover from 2025 openings, to contribute approximately 2.5% to systemwide sales growth. While a higher level of capital investment increases execution requirements, management characterized the spending trajectory as a continuation of its established growth framework. As unit expansion continues to translate into systemwide sales growth, capital expenditures remain a central component of McDonald’s longer-term growth model.

MCD’s Stock Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of McDonald's have gained 8.1% in the past year against the industry’s fall of 5.3%. In the same time frame, other industry players like Starbucks Corporation SBUX, Sweetgreen, Inc. SG and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG have declined 15.6%, 74.7% and 27.1%, respectively.

MCD One-Year Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, MCD trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 8.1, above the industry’s average of 3.72. Conversely, industry players, such as Starbucks, Sweetgreen and Chipotle, have P/S multiples of 2.78, 0.93 and 3.84, respectively.

MCD’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MCD’s 2026 earnings per share has declined in the past 30 days.

EPS Trend of MCD Stock

The company is likely to report strong earnings, with projections indicating an 8.6% rise in 2026. Conversely, industry players like Sweetgreen and Chipotle are likely to witness a decline of 7.6% and 2.6%, respectively, year over year, in 2026 earnings. Meanwhile, Starbucks' fiscal 2026 earnings are likely to witness a rise of 8.5% year over year.

MCD stock currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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