Prediction: This Will Be Palantir's Stock Price in 2030

Key Points

• Palantir's business momentum has been impressive, with management continuing to raise guidance.

• The company's valuation today leaves little room for disappointment.

• A five-year outlook suggests the stock may not live up to current expectations.

• 10 stocks we like better than Palantir Technologies ›

Palantir (NASDAQ: PLTR) has been one of 2025's standout winners. Shares have surged this year as the company's artificial intelligence (AI) platforms gain traction in both government and commercial markets. The enthusiasm isn't baseless. Palantir's second-quarter update showed rapid growth and improving profitability, and management raised its full-year outlook. Still, after a big move, investors should ask a basic question: What might the stock reasonably be worth in five years?

Unfortunately, I don't believe the stock has a great future, and that doesn't mean I'm betting against the company -- far from it. In fact, I believe Palantir will grow both its top and bottom lines at a torrid pace over the next five years and that investors will pay up for that growth.

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The problem is that the stock isn't starting from a premium valuation but rather from an obscene one.

Image source: Getty Images.

Recent results set the stage

Palantir's growth engine is running hot, helping explain why investors have loved the stock so much.

In Q2 2025, revenue rose 48% year over year to about $1.0 billion, and U.S. commercial revenue jumped 93%. Management guided Q3 revenue to about 50% growth and lifted its full-year 2025 revenue outlook to a range of $4.142 billion to $4.150 billion. These are eye-catching numbers, highlighting a great product that is resonating with customers and excellent execution on management's part.

Profitability is improving, too. GAAP operating margin reached 27%, up from 20% in Q1 and 16% in the year-ago quarter.

With momentum like this, it's difficult to bet against the business. And I don't plan to. Even so, the stock itself seems overvalued.

A five-year sketch that lands near $100

I'll keep the math simple on purpose. If Palantir compounds revenue at roughly 25% annually for five years, earns a net income margin of 30%, and trades at about 65 times earnings at that point, my model lands near $100 per share. That's a far cry from today's price.

But wait, why just 25%? Keep in mind that for growth to average 25% over the next five years, it could be higher in the first few years and lower in the second half of this period. Additionally, given the risks of predicting the future, it always makes sense to bake in some level of conservatism. Indeed, I'd bet a conservative investor would call me crazy for using such an aggressive growth forecast. Nevertheless, Palantir has a habit of being extraordinary lately, so I'm going to wear rosy lenses.

Here's a closer look at how to get to this share price.

Start with the company's own 2025 revenue guide as a base. Grow that at 25% annually for five years and you get about $12.6 billion in revenue. Assume Palantir achieves GAAP net margins around 30% by then -- higher than the company's operating margin in Q2, so this is generous. On a diluted share count near today's level (this is also generous since Palantir's liberal stock-based compensation has been substantially diluting shareholders), that math yields roughly $1.45 to $1.55 in GAAP EPS. Slap a 65 price-to-earnings multiple (P/E) on the midpoint, and you get a stock price around $100. Call it a $95 to $105 band.

There are obvious caveats. If growth or margins overshoot these assumptions, fair value moves higher. But if dilution continues running hot, or if margins stall, the outcome slides lower. And a rich multiple in five years is not guaranteed. Palantir is benefiting from intense AI optimism in the market today; in five years, investors may demand a P/E lower than 65 if AI falls out of favor with investors, competition intensifies, or government budgets tighten.

With the stock recently changing hands near the mid-$150s, the market is already pricing in a far more optimistic path than this scenario. That doesn't make Palantir a bad business. It simply narrows the margin of safety for investors. If you own the stock, running your own model of what you believe the company can earn over the next five years can help you decide whether to trim, hold, or wait for a better entry.

Yes, Palantir's execution has improved, and management is extremely optimistic about the future. But even using generous assumptions -- 25% annualized sales growth and a still-hefty P/E of 65 -- a five-year forecast for the stock shows it at just $100. That's well below today's quote, which means prospective buyers should be patient and current holders may want to, at the very least, revisit their assumptions.

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Daniel Sparks and his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.