Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:SMCI) is propping up the tech sector today, up 6% to trade at $46.53 at last check. The AI software giant has officially begun volume shipments of Nvidia (NVDA) Blackwell Ultra Systems chips, solidifying the partnership between the two semiconductor stalwarts.
SMCI is now up 53% in 2025 and has reclaimed its year-over-year breakeven level. The shares are also testing their 200-day moving average, a trendline that moved in as resistance after an 18.2% post-earnings bear gap on Aug 2. Despite the rally today, the stock is a ways off its Feb. 19 annual high of $66.43.
Contrarian potential is flashing. Of the 18 brokerages covering the stock, 11 maintain "hold" or worse ratings, while the consensus 12-month price target of $45.81 is a 2.1% discount to the equity's current perch. And among short sellers, while short interest has started to taper off, the 95 million shares sold short still accounts for 19.2% of the stock's total available float.
An unwinding of bearish bets could also come from the options pits. While calls outnumber puts on an absolute basis, the rate of put buying has picked up lately. On the International Securities (ISE), Cboe Options (CBOE) and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), SMCI's 10-day put/call ratio of 0.62 sits in the 78th percentile of annual readings.
Options traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations, per SMCI's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 56% that ranks in the 3rd percentile of readings from the past 12 months. It's also worth noting that the stock has tended to outperform these volatility expectations, per its
Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 86out of 100.
