CME Group Inc. (CME): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on CME Group Inc. on FluentInQuality’s Substack. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on CME. CME Group Inc. 's share was trading at $262.30 as of September 12th. CME’s trailing and forward P/E were 25.39 and 22.52 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.

CME Group stands as the world’s leading derivatives marketplace, deeply rooted in futures and options while steadily advancing with clearing, data, and global connectivity. Its role is vital in financial markets, where constant volatility drives the need for effective hedging. Farmers hedge crops, airlines hedge fuel, and institutions manage exposure to currencies and interest rates through CME’s platforms.

Its core offerings span interest rate futures and options, energy and agricultural contracts, equities, and foreign exchange derivatives, complemented by trusted clearing and settlement services. Once embedded in market structures, CME’s infrastructure is rarely replaced, with liquidity attracting further liquidity and trust compounding over time. Beyond contracts, CME enables transparency, stability, and risk management at scale, defining global price discovery.

The company’s growth is underpinned by structural drivers, including rising volatility, expanding global demand for hedging, and increasing adoption of clearing and data services. These trends reinforce CME’s network effects, as every trade deepens liquidity and every participant strengthens its competitive moat. CME has consistently innovated to expand its product suite, successfully launching contracts like the Micro E-mini S&P 500 and SOFR futures, both of which have driven meaningful trading volume growth.

The business model is designed to generate durable value—CME does not simply operate exchanges, but safeguards financial stability while enabling global market participants to manage risk. At current valuations, investors gain exposure to an exceptional business at a fair price, with a proven ability to compound shareholder value over the long term through innovation, scale, and trust.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on CME Group Inc. (CME) by Magnus Ofstad in January 2025, which highlighted CME’s leadership in derivatives trading, record interest rate contract volumes, and its dividend strength from a transaction-driven model. The stock has appreciated about 10.7% since then as the thesis played out. The thesis still stands as FluentInQuality shares a similar view but emphasizes CME’s structural growth drivers and network effects.

CME Group Inc.  is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 75 hedge fund portfolios held CME at the end of the second quarter which was 73 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of CME as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.