Arch Capital is Trading at a Discount: Time to Load Up or Hold Off?

Shares of Arch Capital Group Ltd. ACGL are trading at a discount compared to the Zacks Property and Casualty Insurance industry. Its price-to-book value of 1.47X is lower its 5 year Median of 1.65 and the industry average of 1.54X. The insurer has a Value Score of B.

However, shares of other insurers like Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. HRTG and Cincinnati Financial Corporation CINF are trading at a multiple higher than the industry average. Heritage Insurance is trading at 1.98 and Cincinnati is trading at 1.68. However, CNA Financial Corporation CNA shares are trading at a discount at 1.17.

ACGL’s Price Performance

Shares of Arch Capital have lost 5.4 % in the year-to-date period, underperforming its industry, the sector, and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite’s growth of 7.4%, 14% and 13.5%, respectively.

The insurer has a market capitalization of $32.6 billion. The average volume of shares traded in the last three months was 2.3 million.

ACGL vs Industry, Sector & S&P 500 YTD

Projections for ACGL

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 revenues is pegged at $18.9 billion, implying a year-over-year improvement of 13.5%. The consensus estimate for ACGL’s current-year earnings is pegged at $8.13 per share, down 12.4% from the year-ago reported figure. The consensus estimate for 2026 earnings per share and revenues indicates an increase of 15% and 4.7%, respectively, from 2025 estimates.

Analyst Sentiment on ACGL

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings per share has moved up by a penny in the past week, while the same for 2026 earnings has remained flat.

Average Target Price for ACGL Suggests Upside

Based on short-term price targets offered by 17 analysts, the Zacks average price target is $107.12 per share. The average indicates a potential 19.2% upside from the last closing price.

Key Points to Note for ACGL

Arch Capital’s well-rounded product portfolio and consistent premium growth highlight the strength of its organic drivers. Rate increases, new business inflows, and expansion within existing accounts continue to fuel its momentum. Additionally, its ability to scale organically across specialty insurance and reinsurance underscores sustained growth potential.

Building on this momentum, Arch Capital has delivered steady premium acceleration, with net premiums written registering a 12.9% CAGR from 2018 to 2024. The combination of firm market rates, inflation-led demand and disciplined underwriting has strengthened growth across P&C lines. This trajectory remained intact in the second quarter of 2025, as net premiums written advanced 15% year over year to $4.3 billion.

Arch Capital is also benefiting from favorable dynamics in the P&C market, where a hardening environment is supporting higher premiums and stronger demand for coverage. While industry-wide pressures such as catastrophe losses and inflation have intensified claims costs, they have also driven rate momentum. With its underwriting discipline, global distribution and focus on specialty lines, Arch Capital is well-placed to capitalize on these conditions.

However, Arch Capital is not immune to external headwinds. The Russia–Ukraine conflict has disrupted its marine and energy lines, with sanctions on Russian oil, gas and other commodities weighing on operations. Broader geopolitical instability also heightens the risk of unforeseen losses, which could put pressure on financial results.

In addition, Arch Capital’s efficiency on the investment side has come under pressure. While capital deployment has increased, returns have trended lower, with its trailing 12-month ROIC at 5.2% versus the industry average of 5.9%. This gap underscores challenges in optimizing the use of shareholders’ funds.

Conclusion

Overall, Arch Capital continues to benefit from strong organic growth drivers, steady premium momentum, and a solid competitive position in key markets. However, ongoing geopolitical risks and softer investment returns may put pressure on the company’s performance.

Given the price erosion, we prefer to remain cautious on this Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) stock at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research