CAVA's Comp Story: Can Engagement & Efficiency Power the Next Leg?

CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA is relying on disciplined execution to stabilize same-store sales as a central pillar of its growth model. In the second quarter of 2025, the company reported a 2.1% year-over-year increase in same-restaurant sales, driven by menu price and mix gains while guest traffic held steady. Although the figure appeared modest, management emphasized that the trend improved as the quarter progressed and carried into the early third quarter, suggesting resilient consumer demand.

During the second quarter, CAVA’s comps were influenced by transitory factors. First, the company faced a difficult comparison against the prior year’s steak launch, which delivered one of the brand’s most successful menu introductions to date. Second, unusually strong year-one volumes from the 2024 restaurant cohort created a “honeymoon effect,” dampening year-over-year comp visibility despite exceptional underlying performance. Both dynamics muted the comp figure but did not alter the structural growth profile of the business.

Looking ahead, CAVA reaffirmed its full-year guidance for 4%-6% same-store sales growth. This outlook is supported by a measured innovation pipeline, including the nationwide rollout of chicken shawarma, which introduces an all-white meat option aligned with consumer preferences for both health and flavor. The company is also extending its pita chip platform into seasonal offerings, broadening relevance across snacking and dessert occasions.

On the engagement front, CAVA plans to launch a tiered rewards program later this year. Management views the enhanced structure as a lever to deepen guest loyalty, drive frequency and reinforce the emotional connection with the brand. Together, these initiatives provide tangible catalysts for sustaining comp momentum through the remainder of 2025.

Comparisons With Peers Like CMG & SG

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG reported a 4% decline in comparable restaurant sales in the second quarter of 2025, pressured by softer transactions earlier in the period. Comps, however, turned positive in June and July, aided by marketing initiatives and limited-time offerings such as Chipotle Honey Chicken. Management now expects full-year comps to be roughly flat, compared with prior expectations for growth, citing near-term consumer volatility. Longer term, comps are expected to return to mid-single-digit growth as menu innovation, digital engagement and operational efficiencies support throughput and frequency gains.

Sweetgreen, Inc. SG posted a 7.6% decline in same-store sales in the second quarter of 2025. The decline reflected difficult comparisons against last year’s steak launch as well as a roughly 250-basis-point drag tied to the transition from Sweetpass subscriptions to SG Rewards. Management emphasized that guest engagement metrics, including active loyalty membership and 90-day frequency, are improving and that the loyalty headwind should turn into a comp tailwind by the late third or fourth quarter. Operational measures, including recipe adjustments and “Project One Best Way,” are expected to stabilize performance and support a path toward comp recovery in the second half of 2025.

CAVA’s Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of CAVA have declined 16.2% in the past three months compared with the industry’s fall of 5.1%.

CAVA Three-Month Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, CAVA trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 5.28X, above the industry’s average of 3.64X.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CAVA’s 2025 and 2026 earnings per share (EPS) implies a year-over-year uptick of 33.3% and 18.8%, respectively. The EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have declined in the past 60 days.

CAVA stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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