Chipotle's Pricing Lags Inflation: How Deep Is the Margin Squeeze?

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG enters 2026 with a visible pricing-to-inflation dislocation, shaping its near-term margin outlook. Management expects full-year pricing to rise about 1% to 2%, while overall inflation is projected in the 3% to 4% range. This gap implies roughly 150 basis points (bps) of year-over-year restaurant-level margin pressure in 2026.

The imbalance is most pronounced in the first quarter. With pricing contributing about 70 bps to comparable sales and inflation running near 4%, the resulting spread is expected to translate into roughly 250 basis points of restaurant-level margin pressure. Although management noted that the pricing-to-inflation gap will narrow as the year progresses, margins are expected to remain under pressure.

Additional cost factors also weigh on margins. Inflationary costs are concentrated in beef, avocados and cooking oils, with full-year cost of sales inflation anticipated in the mid-single-digit range. Although tariff impacts are moderating (from approximately 30 bps in the fourth quarter of 2025 to an anticipated ongoing effect of roughly 15 bps in 2026), other cost pressures, including marketing spend (projected in the low-3% range of sales), add to the margin strain.

Over the longer term, management views the margin compression as cyclical rather than structural. Productivity initiatives, operational efficiencies, equipment enhancements and scale benefits are expected to support gradual rebuilding toward the high-20% margin range. For 2026, the pricing-to-inflation dislocation remains the central factor shaping restaurant-level margin performance.

CMG’s Stock Price Performance, Valuation & Estimates

Shares of Chipotle have plunged 37.2% in the past year compared with the industry’s fall of 6.6%. In the same time frame, other industry players like Starbucks Corporation SBUX, Sweetgreen, Inc. SG and CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA have declined 14%, 81.1% and 51.4%, respectively.

CMG One-Year Price Performance

From a valuation standpoint, CMG trades at a forward price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of 3.56, below the industry’s average of 3.75. Conversely, industry players, such as Starbucks, Sweetgreen and CAVA, have P/S multiples of 2.81, 0.8 and 5.14, respectively.

CMG’s P/S Ratio (Forward 12-Month) vs. Industry

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CMG’s 2026 earnings per share has declined in the past 30 days.

EPS Trend of CMG Stock

The company is likely to report soft earnings, with projections indicating a decline of 2.6% in 2026. Conversely, industry players like Sweetgreen and CAVA are likely to witness an increase of 12.7% and 6.7%, respectively, year over year, in 2026 earnings. Meanwhile, Starbucks' fiscal 2026 earnings are likely to witness a rise of 8.5% year over year.

CMG stock currently has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell).

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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