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Costco (COST) Q4 Earnings Preview: What You Should Know Beyond the Headline Estimates

By Zacks Equity Research | September 22, 2025, 9:15 AM

Analysts on Wall Street project that Costco (COST) will announce quarterly earnings of $5.81 per share in its forthcoming report, representing an increase of 12.8% year over year. Revenues are projected to reach $86.23 billion, increasing 8.2% from the same quarter last year.

Over the last 30 days, there has been an upward revision of 0.4% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, leading to its current level. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their initial forecasts over the course of this timeframe.

Before a company reveals its earnings, it is vital to take into account any changes in earnings projections. These revisions play a pivotal role in predicting the possible reactions of investors toward the stock. Multiple empirical studies have consistently shown a strong association between trends in earnings estimates and the short-term price movements of a stock.

While investors usually depend on consensus earnings and revenue estimates to assess the business performance for the quarter, delving into analysts' forecasts for certain key metrics often provides a more comprehensive understanding.

Given this perspective, it's time to examine the average forecasts of specific Costco metrics that are routinely monitored and predicted by Wall Street analysts.

Analysts expect 'Geographic Revenue- Canada' to come in at $12.02 billion. The estimate indicates a change of +8.5% from the prior-year quarter.

Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Geographic Revenue- Other International' should arrive at $11.74 billion. The estimate indicates a change of +9.7% from the prior-year quarter.

Analysts forecast 'Geographic Revenue- United States' to reach $62.63 billion. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +8.2%.

According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Comparable sales - Total Company' should come in at 5.5%. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 5.4%.

The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Changes in comparable sales excluding the impact of changes in foreign-currency and gasoline prices - Total Company' will likely reach 6.5%. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 6.9%.

It is projected by analysts that the 'Number of warehouses - Total worldwide' will reach 913 . The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 891 .

The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Number of warehouses - United States and Puerto Rico' of 629 . The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 614 .

Analysts' assessment points toward 'Changes in comparable sales excluding the impact of changes in foreign-currency and gasoline prices - Other International' reaching 6.8%. Compared to the current estimate, the company reported 9.3% in the same quarter of the previous year.

The average prediction of analysts places 'Changes in comparable sales excluding the impact of changes in foreign-currency and gasoline prices - Canada' at 7.1%. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 7.9% in the same quarter last year.

The consensus estimate for 'Changes in comparable sales excluding the impact of changes in foreign-currency and gasoline prices - U.S.' stands at 6.0%. The estimate compares to the year-ago value of 6.3%.

Analysts predict that the 'Comparable sales - U.S.' will reach 5.6%. Compared to the present estimate, the company reported 5.3% in the same quarter last year.

The consensus among analysts is that 'Comparable sales - Other International' will reach 8.4%. The estimate is in contrast to the year-ago figure of 5.7%.

View all Key Company Metrics for Costco here>>>

Shares of Costco have experienced a change of -0.8% in the past month compared to the +4% move of the Zacks S&P 500 composite. With a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), COST is expected to mirror the overall market performance in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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