Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Pre-market futures are flat this morning, following yet another all-time closing high across major indexes Monday. Propelling stocks forward yesterday was the blockbuster announcement that NVIDIA NVDA would be investing $100 billion into private firm OpenAI (ChatGPT’s parent) to build out databases for AI cloud services.
It’s a massive undertaking that will require some time for most of us not named Jensen Huang to comprehend. But the tech rally looks a bit exhausted at this hour: the Nasdaq is up 1.5 points (0.006%). S&P 500 futures are down -1 point, while yesterday’s laggard, the Dow, is up +50 points. Bond yields are slowly advancing: +4.14% on the 10-year and +3.59% this morning.
S&P flash Services & Manufacturing PMI After the Bell
Once the regular trading session in underway,
S&P flash Services and Manufacturing PMI will come out. As we discussed in this space yesterday afternoon, we’ve seen Services remain steadily above the 50 threshold that determines expansion from contraction. What analysts are looking for is a steady decline for September: from 55.7 in July to 54.5 in August to 53.8 this time around. Any upside surprises would certainly be welcomed.
Manufacturing prints have been a bit more volatile and challenged, as we can see from the previous two reports and today’s estimate: 49.8 July (sub-50), 53.0 August, 51.5 forecast for September — basically splitting the distance between the prior tow months. The August number, by the way, is the strongest we’ve seen in more than three years.
New Labor Metric: Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicator
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” this morning to unveil a new labor report, called the
Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicator. It is said to provide twice-monthly real-time insights on hiring, layoffs and job separations, an early forecast on the Unemployment Rate. Data will be supplied by
ADP ADP,
Google GOOGL and labor website Indeed.
Perhaps it will take a little time to provide any meaningful impact. This morning, the Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicator was in-line with the prior print of 4.3% — exactly what we saw from the most recent Unemployment Rate from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
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