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Form 13F filings allow investors to see which stocks and trends are piquing the interest of Wall Street's smartest money managers.
Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller cashed in all of his chips on Palantir over the last year -- and profit-taking might tell only part of the story.
Meanwhile, Duquesne's billionaire chief has purchased shares of a foundational artificial intelligence (AI) stock for four consecutive quarters and made it his fund's fifth-largest holding.
For a lot of investors, earnings season is the highlight of every quarter. It's the six-week period where most members of the S&P 500 lift the proverbial hood on their operating results.
But a strong argument can be made that the quarterly filing of Form 13Fs with the Securities and Exchange Commission is equally important. A 13F is a required filing for institutional investors with at least $100 million in assets under management (AUM) that spills the beans on which stocks they've been buying and selling. This information can be invaluable in the sense that it tells investors which stocks and trends have piqued the interest of Wall Street's savviest money managers.
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Though Warren Buffett tends to be the most-tracked of all asset managers, he's not the only billionaire known for supersized returns. Duquesne Family Office's billionaire boss Stanley Druckenmiller knows a thing or two about spotting a good deal.
Image source: Getty Images.
Druckenmiller is overseeing more than $4 billion in AUM at Duquesne and tends to run an active portfolio that features a balance of high-opportunity growth and value stocks.
Based on the last year of Druckenmiller's trading history (July 1, 2024 – June 30, 2025) from 13Fs, he's been a decisive seller of Wall Street's hottest artificial intelligence (AI) stock, Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR), and a buyer of his new favorite AI stock for four consecutive quarters.
Arguably no AI stock has lit up portfolios quite like Palantir. Shares have rallied well over 2,400% since the start of 2023, as of this writing midday on Sept. 17. Gains of this magnitude are exceptionally rare for megacap companies in such a short timeline.
The lure with Palantir for investors is its sustainable moat. The company's AI- and machine learning-powered Gotham platform assists federal governments with military mission planning and execution, and can be used to gather and analyze data. Palantir's other core segment, Foundry, is used by businesses to streamline their operations by making sense of their data. With no clear competitors for Gotham, Palantir's cash flow stream has been secure.
Palantir also pushed into the profit column well ahead of Wall Street's expectations, and has been recently blowing the lid off of analyst growth forecasts.
At the midpoint of 2024, Duquesne Family Office was holding nearly 770,000 shares of AI-data mining specialist Palantir. By the time March 31 rolled around, they were gone.
The common-sense explanation is that Druckenmiller took his gains and headed for the door. As of June 30, the average hold time for the 69 securities in Duquesne's portfolio was less than seven months. The fund's billionaire chief isn't shy about cashing in his chips when the opportunity arises.
However, the worry for Palantir shareholders is that something more nefarious may have coerced Druckenmiller to exit the position -- and Palantir's valuation may have been at the top of the list.
History tells us that companies on the leading edge of game-changing trends, such as the advent and proliferation of the internet three decades ago, peaked at price-to-sales (P/S) ratios in the 30 to 40 range, give or take a little bit. Palantir is sporting a P/S ratio of nearly 121 as of this writing. A P/S ratio of 30 to 40 has never been sustainable for a megacap company, let alone a triple-digit P/S ratio.
Additionally, Druckenmiller may have exercised caution given the historical priciness of the stock market and/or the potential that history might repeat with an AI bubble forming and bursting. When stock market corrections arise, companies with premium valuations (ahem, Palantir) tend to be hit the hardest. Further, if an AI bubble-bursting event were to occur, Palantir stock would almost certainly be dragged down by poor investor sentiment.
Image source: Getty Images.
Over the last year (ended June 30), Stanley Druckenmiller has overseen the addition of close to four dozen new holdings, which includes stocks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and call options. The one that stands out, since it's grown into his fund's fifth-largest holding and top AI stock, is world-leading chip fabricator Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM), which is more commonly known as "TSMC."
At the midpoint of 2024, Duquesne Family Office didn't hold a single share of TSMC. But Druckenmiller has been a clear buyer in each of the last four quarters:
Though Druckenmiller's fund has previously held shares of TSMC for short periods, the 765,085 shares currently held is his largest-ever stake in the company.
From an investment standpoint, the biggest attraction to TSMC is that it plays a critical role in AI-graphics processing unit (GPU) production. GPUs are effectively the brains that allow for split-second decision-making in AI-accelerated enterprise data centers. TSMC is rapidly expanding its chip-on-wafer-on-substrate (CoWoS) capacity -- CoWoS is needed for the packaging of high-bandwidth memory in high-compute data centers -- for Nvidia and a host of other AI-GPU developers.
At the moment, demand for AI-GPUs is far outpacing their available supply, leading to a backlog of orders for Nvidia and a seemingly endless sea of demand for TSMC, which has been reflected in its rapidly rising share price and hearty double-digit growth rate.
But what makes Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing special is that it's more than just an AI chip fabricator. Tech colossus Apple has been purchasing the lion's share of its advanced chips from TSMC and will continue to do so with TSMC expanding its production capacity in the U.S. TSMC will remain a go-to for chip production in smartphones, automobiles, and Internet of Things devices.
If an AI bubble were to form and burst, TSMC's diversified operating model would somewhat insulate it from downside pressure.
Additionally, much of Druckenmiller's buying activity in TSMC would have occurred with shares ranging from $140 to $210. At these price points, TSMC was valued at a very reasonable 12 to 19 times forward-year earnings. While TSMC is no longer a screaming bargain, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23, it's reasonably inexpensive when compared to Palantir and most trillion-dollar tech stocks.
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Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Apple, Nvidia, Palantir Technologies, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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