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Unveiling Vail Resorts (MTN) Q4 Outlook: Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics

By Zacks Equity Research | September 24, 2025, 9:15 AM

The upcoming report from Vail Resorts (MTN) is expected to reveal quarterly loss of -$4.78 per share, indicating a decline of 2.4% compared to the year-ago period. Analysts forecast revenues of $269.98 million, representing an increase of 1.7% year over year.

Over the last 30 days, there has been no revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their initial forecasts over the course of this timeframe.

Ahead of a company's earnings disclosure, it is crucial to give due consideration to changes in earnings estimates. These revisions serve as a noteworthy factor in predicting potential investor reactions to the stock. Numerous empirical studies consistently demonstrate a strong relationship between trends in earnings estimate revision and the short-term price performance of a stock.

While investors usually depend on consensus earnings and revenue estimates to assess the business performance for the quarter, delving into analysts' forecasts for certain key metrics often provides a more comprehensive understanding.

Given this perspective, it's time to examine the average forecasts of specific Vail Resorts metrics that are routinely monitored and predicted by Wall Street analysts.

Analysts predict that the 'Net Revenue- Lodging net revenue' will reach $88.25 million. The estimate suggests a change of -1.3% year over year.

Analysts expect 'Net Revenue- Mountain net revenue' to come in at $179.08 million. The estimate indicates a change of +1.8% from the prior-year quarter.

The combined assessment of analysts suggests that 'Net Revenue- Resort net revenue' will likely reach $267.74 million. The estimate suggests a change of +0.9% year over year.

According to the collective judgment of analysts, 'Net Revenue- Mountain net revenue- Other' should come in at $71.77 million. The estimate points to a change of -5.4% from the year-ago quarter.

Based on the collective assessment of analysts, 'Net Revenue- Lodging net revenue- Managed condominium rooms' should arrive at $10.46 million. The estimate indicates a year-over-year change of -0.3%.

Analysts' assessment points toward 'Net Revenue- Mountain net revenue- Retail/rental' reaching $26.29 million. The estimate indicates a change of +8.2% from the prior-year quarter.

The average prediction of analysts places 'Net Revenue- Mountain net revenue- Dining' at $20.51 million. The estimate indicates a change of +14.2% from the prior-year quarter.

It is projected by analysts that the 'Net Revenue- Mountain net revenue- Ski school' will reach $10.27 million. The estimate suggests a change of +8.2% year over year.

The collective assessment of analysts points to an estimated 'Net Revenue- Mountain net revenue- Lift' of $44.64 million. The estimate indicates a change of -7.5% from the prior-year quarter.

The consensus among analysts is that 'Lodging - Managed condominium statistics - RevPAR' will reach $46.15 . The estimate compares to the year-ago value of $46.30 .

Analysts forecast 'Lodging - Owned hotel statistics - RevPAR' to reach $178.07 . Compared to the current estimate, the company reported $175.22 in the same quarter of the previous year.

The consensus estimate for 'Mountain - ETP' stands at $59.70 . Compared to the present estimate, the company reported $69.04 in the same quarter last year.

View all Key Company Metrics for Vail Resorts here>>>

Over the past month, shares of Vail Resorts have returned -8% versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +3.1% change. Currently, MTN carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell), suggesting that it may underperform the overall market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here >>>> .

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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