Are Early-Season Metrics Signaling Challenges for Vail Resorts?

Vail Resorts, Inc. MTN has shared an update on early ski season performance, outlining select operating metrics from the start of the season through Jan. 4, 2026. The results were measured against the comparable period last year, which ran through Jan. 5, 2025, offering a year-over-year snapshot of how the current season is shaping up.  These metrics were disclosed ahead of the company’s fiscal second-quarter 2026 results and represent preliminary, interim data subject to final review and adjustment.

Management noted that the company experienced one of the weakest early ski seasons in more than 30 years, driven by sharply below-average snowfall across the western United States. Snowfall during the period was approximately 50% below the 30-year average overall and nearly 60% below average in the Rockies, limiting terrain availability to about 11% in December and weighing on visitation and guest spending. While holiday snowstorms improved conditions in Tahoe and Whistler, strong early-season performance at eastern U.S. resorts helped partially offset these weather-related headwinds.

Following the news, shares of MTN declined 2.4% during the trading session yesterday.

Metrics Provided by Vail Resorts

The holiday period, typically a peak season for the business, recorded year-over-year declines across all major metrics. Season-to-date skier visits fell 20.0%, while total lift revenues, including the allocated portion of season pass revenues, declined 1.8%. Ski school and dining revenues decreased 14.9% and 15.9%, respectively, and retail and rental revenues at North American resort and ski area store locations were down 6.0% compared with the prior-year period.

Vail Resorts now expects its full-year Resort Reported EBITDA to come in slightly below the lower end of the guidance range issued on Sept. 29, 2025, which had been set at $842 million to $898 million. The company noted that slower-than-expected recovery or continued weak conditions in the Rockies could pose additional downside risk to its earnings forecast.

Recent weather variability has reinforced the company’s commitment to its advanced commitment strategy and continued investments in its resorts and workforce, supporting strong guest satisfaction despite challenging conditions. In parallel, MTN previously introduced several initiatives — including Epic Friends tickets offering a 50% discount to friends and family of pass holders, a lift ticket program providing a 30% discount for advance purchases at select resorts and increased marketing spend beyond traditional email channels — that are expected to support future visitation and drive long-term growth.

MTN’s Share Price Performance

Shares of Vail Resorts have declined 12% in the past six months compared with the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry’s 7.8% fall. The company’s near-term prospects have been weighed down by challenging weather conditions, with snowfall in the Rockies and Tahoe nearly 60% below last year, affecting early visitation and performance. However, strategic initiatives, redesigned lift ticket programs and accelerated digital transformation to boost guest engagement and efficiency offer potential upside.

MTN’s Zacks Rank & Key Picks

Vail Resorts currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

Here are some better-ranked stocks from the Consumer Discretionary sector:

American Public Education, Inc. APEI currently sports a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks Rank #1 stocks here.

The company delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 173.7%, on average. APEI stock has moved up 32.2% in the past six months. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for APEI’s 2026 sales and EPS indicates an increase of 7.1% and 106%, respectively, from the year-ago levels.

Stride, Inc. LRN currently carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The company delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 12.1%, on average. LRN stock has declined 47.4% in the past six months.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Stride’s fiscal 2026 sales and EPS implies growth of 4.6% and 3.1%, respectively, from the year-ago levels.

Boyd Gaming Corporation BYD currently has a Zacks Rank of 2. The company delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 9.6%, on average. BYD stock has gained 8.7% in the past six months.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Boyd Gaming’s 2026 sales implies a decline of 2.3%, while EPS indicates growth of 9% from the year-ago levels.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

Zacks Investment Research