HMY vs. AU: Which Gold Mining Stock is the Better Pick Now?

By Anindya Barman | September 25, 2025, 7:22 AM

Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd. HMY and AngloGold Ashanti plc AU are prominent gold mining companies with operations spanning Africa and other regions. They are benefiting from the surge in gold prices this year, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid global economic uncertainties. Against this backdrop, comparing these two gold producers is particularly relevant for investors seeking exposure to the precious metals sector.

Gold prices have catapulted to historic highs this year, primarily due to aggressive trade policies, including sweeping new import tariffs announced by President Donald Trump. These have intensified global trade tensions and heightened investor anxiety. Also, central banks worldwide have been accumulating gold reserves, led by risks arising from Trump’s policies.

Prices of the yellow metal have shot up roughly 42% so far this year. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate reduction by a quarter of a percentage point, along with prospects of further rate cuts this year amid concerns over the labor market, has triggered the rally lately, driving prices north of $3,700 per ton for the first time. Increased purchases by central banks and geopolitical and trade tensions are the other factors expected to help the yellow metal sustain the upswing in gold prices.

Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of these two gold miners to determine which one is a better investment now.

The Case for Harmony

Harmony is South Africa's biggest gold producer by volume, with production of roughly 1.56 million ounces in fiscal 2024. It has a diverse portfolio of gold development projects spread across South Africa and Papua New Guinea (PNG). The company’s development projects currently in progress include the development of the Wafi-Golpu copper-gold project in PNG and the Eva Copper project in Australia.

The Wafi-Golpu project is believed to be a game-changer for the company, with an estimated gold reserve of 13 million ounces. HMY is currently in negotiations with its joint venture partner, Newmont Corporation NEM and the PNG Government regarding the terms of a Mining Development Contract, which is required for a Special Mining Lease.

The low-risk Eva Copper project in Australia offers additional upside, giving HMY a significant global copper-gold footprint. HMY acquired Eva Copper in 2022, adding a tier-one mining jurisdiction to its portfolio. The acquisition is in line with HMY’s objective of transitioning into a low-cost gold and copper mining company. HMY has received a conditional grant funding from the Queensland government, which will help accelerate the development of this project. It is subject to several conditions, including HMY reaching a positive final investment decision. Eva Copper is expected to produce 55,000-60,000 tons of copper per annum, with first production expected in 2028.

Harmony boasts a strong balance sheet and generates substantial cash flows, which allows it to finance its development projects and drive shareholder value. Its net cash surged roughly 295% to $628 million in fiscal 2025 (ended June 30, 2025), from $159 million at the end of fiscal 2024. HMY ended the fiscal year with liquidity of $1,179 million.

HMY also has a dividend policy to pay 20% of the net free cash generated to its shareholders at its board’s discretion. HMY offers a dividend yield of 1.1% at the current stock price. It has a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of about 19.4%.

HMY saw a roughly 20% surge in all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) to $1,806 per ounce (oz) in fiscal 2025. Total cash operating costs also climbed 19% year over year to $1,499 per oz in the fiscal year, hurt by lower production and higher labor and electricity costs. Increased cash operating costs and higher sustaining capital led to the uptick in AISC.

Harmony remains exposed to higher costs, which are likely to weigh on its margins over the near term. Labor and electricity remain the largest components of its cost structure. HMY experienced a 16% increase in electricity and water costs in fiscal 2025 due to higher annual tariffs charged by Eskom. While the company is implementing various energy-saving initiatives and launching a renewable energy program, the burden of higher electricity costs is unlikely to abate over the near term due to higher tariffs. The company’s AISC guidance for fiscal 2026 indicates a year-over-year increase, reflecting inflationary pressure and higher sustaining capital expenditures.

Also, Harmony’s gold production for fiscal 2025 fell 5% to around 1.48 million tons from roughly 1.56 million a year ago. While the company met its guidance, production was impacted by interruptions from unfavorable weather conditions stemming from unprecedented rainfall in South Africa, as well as safety-related stoppages that led to a temporary halt in production. These conditions affected output in the third and fourth quarters. Harmony Gold expects to produce 1.4-1.5 million oz of gold in fiscal 2026, indicating continued production challenges.

The Case for AngloGold Ashanti

AngloGold Ashanti has operations in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Egypt, Ghana, Guinea and Tanzania. In November 2024, it bolstered its asset base with the acquisition of Egyptian gold producer Centamin, adding the large-scale, long-life, world-class Tier 1 Sukari mine, which has the potential to produce 500,000 ounces annually.

AU’s gold production increased 21% year over year to 804,000 ounces in the second quarter of 2025. Production for 2025 is projected at 2.9-3.225 million ounces, implying year-over-year growth of 9-21%. Gold revenues in the second quarter were up 78% to $2.4 billion due to higher sales volumes and prices.

AngloGold Ashanti remains focused on its Full Asset Potential program to offset the inflationary impacts. The company is executing a clear strategy of organic and inorganic growth. It recently inked a deal to acquire Augusta Gold Corp. to boost its footprint in the Beatty District of Nevada.

It is also intensifying its efforts to streamline operations and sharpen its focus on core assets, particularly in the United States. AU recently inked a deal to sell its interest in the Mineracao Serra Grande mine in Brazil (one of its higher-cost assets) following the sale of its interests in two gold projects in Côte d’Ivoire. AU also divested its stake in Canada’s G2 Goldfields.

Obuasi remains a significant pillar of its long-term strategy. The company’s focus this year is to continue the implementation of the underhand drift and fill mining method and make stoping improvements. This important orebody is expected to deliver 400,000 ounces of annual production at competitive costs by 2028. At Siguiri, efforts are underway to improve mining volumes through ongoing improvements to fleet availability and utilization, and introduce gravity recovery in the processing plant to further improve metallurgical recovery.

AngloGold Ashanti ended the second quarter with $3.4 billion in liquidity, including cash and cash equivalents of $2 billion. Free cash flow soared 149% year over year to $535 million in the quarter. It has managed to lower its adjusted net debt by 92% year over year to $92 million at the end of the second quarter.

AU offers a healthy dividend yield of 4.6% at the current stock price. Its payout ratio is 14% (a ratio below 60% is a good indicator that the dividend will be sustainable), with a solid five-year annualized dividend growth rate of roughly 30.2%.

Higher costs may weigh on AngloGold Ashanti’s margins. AU saw higher total operating costs in the second quarter, including increased royalty expenses and costs associated with the initial inclusion of Sukari, elevated costs related to legacy TSFs and higher costs resulting from mining contractor rate adjustments. AngloGold Ashanti’s total cash costs per ounce were up 8%, while AISC per ounce increased 7%. AngloGold expects consolidated AISC in the band of $1,580- $1,705 per ounce in 2025.

Price Performance and Valuation of HMY & AU

Year to date, HMY stock has rallied 110.1%, while AU stock has shot up 188.6% compared with the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s increase of 118%.