Has AbbVie Successfully Navigated Top-line Growth Post Humira LOE?

AbbVie ABBV expects to return to robust revenue growth in 2025, despite the U.S. loss of exclusivity (LOE) for its flagship drug Humira over two years ago. The drug, which went off-patent in January 2023, saw first-half 2025 sales decline over 54% year over year to $2.3 billion. Humira had already lost exclusivity in ex-U.S. markets in 2018.

While the drug’s sales continue to face steep erosion, AbbVie’s ex-Humira portfolio has not only cushioned this blow but also helped position the company for a top-line rebound. This is primarily driven by the continued strength of its newer immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. The company successfully launched both drugs across Humira's major indications and a distinct new indication, atopic dermatitis. Skyrizi and Rinvoq have also demonstrated compelling head-to-head data against several novel therapies in clinical studies, giving them a competitive advantage.

Skyrizi and Rinvoq are seeing strong performance across all approved indications, especially in the popular inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) space, which includes two conditions, ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn’s disease (CD). Strong immunology market growth, market share gains and momentum from new indications, such as the recent launch of Skyrizi in UC, as well as the potential for five new indications for Rinvoq over the next few years, are expected to drive future growth. On the back of this continued momentum, AbbVie expects combined sales of both drugs to be more than $25 billion in 2025 and surpass $31 billion by 2027.

In addition to immunology, AbbVie has been expanding its presence in oncology and neuroscience. In recent years, ABBV has added Epkinly, Elahere and most recently, Emrelis, bringing its total oncology therapies to five. Growth in its neuroscience segment is also supported by increasing uptake of its migraine drugs, Ubrelvy and Qulipta.

ABBV’s Peers in the Immunology Space

The targeted market is highly competitive. A key player in the immunology market is Johnson & Johnson JNJ, which markets two blockbuster drugs — Stelara and Tremfya. Both of these J&J medications are approved for multiple immunology indications, including UC and CD. Since Stelara lost U.S. patent exclusivity earlier this year, J&J has shifted focus to Tremfya to maintain its market position.

Another pharma giant expanding its presence in immunology is Eli Lilly LLY, following the FDA approval of Omvoh for the UC indication in late 2023. Omvoh marked Lilly’s first immunology drug approved for a type of IBD in the United States, playing a key role in expanding its portfolio in this therapeutic area. The Lilly drug also received FDA approval for the CD indication in January.

ABBV’s Price Performance, Valuation and Estimates

Shares of AbbVie have outperformed the industry year to date, as seen in the chart below.

From a valuation standpoint, AbbVie is trading at a premium to the industry. Based on the price/earnings (P/E) ratio, the company’s shares currently trade at 15.86 times forward earnings, slightly higher than its industry’s average of 14.67. The stock is also trading above its five-year mean of 12.98.

EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have increased in the past 60 days.

AbbVie currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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