Tesla Is About to Launch a New Vehicle. It May Be a Game-Changer.

Key Points

• Tesla says the first builds of a more affordable model happened in June, with volume production planned for the second half of 2025.

• The new car will likely slot below today's Model Y and lean into Tesla's self-driving roadmap.

• Model 3 transformed Tesla's business. While this launch may be smaller, it could similarly matter for growth and valuation.

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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is quietly approaching a product milestone that could dramatically catalyze its business: a new, more affordable vehicle designed to expand its addressable market and support its autonomy ambitions. Fortunately for investors, Tesla is no stranger to step-change launches -- and this one arrives amid a broader pivot the company has outlined toward artificial intelligence (AI) and software.

But what do we actually know about this vehicle? And, more importantly, could it move the needle like Model 3 did years ago?

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Image source: Getty Images.

What we know (and don't) about the new vehicle

"We continue to expand our vehicle offering, including first builds of a more affordable model in June, with volume production planned for the second half of 2025," Tesla said in its second-quarter update.

During the accompanying earnings call for its second quarter, Tesla CEO Elon Musk suggested that the new vehicle is essentially a variant of the Model Y. Some speculate it may be a stripped-down version or have a smaller battery or both.

Where could the vehicle be priced compared to the rest of Tesla's lineup? Today's U.S. Model Y starts at about $45,000 -- above pricing that many shoppers target. An "affordable" trim suggests a meaningful discount to current Model Y stickers, likely enabled by a smaller battery, simplified interiors, and scale savings on parts shared with the refreshed Model Y (Juniper).

What about design? It would not be surprising to see the budget variant borrow many of the refresh cues from the recently overhauled Model Y.

To be fair, we're just speculating here. We only know it will be less expensive than Tesla's current lineup (Otherwise, why call it "a more affordable model"?) -- so, probably somewhere in the $30,000 range.

The specific timing also remains unknown, but if Tesla still expects to achieve volume production of the new vehicle this year, then the first deliveries will likely occur soon.

Why this could still be a big deal

Model 3, which was Tesla's first vehicle priced well below its flagship Model S and X vehicles, significantly increased Tesla's deliveries. After its first Model 3 deliveries in the second half of 2017, Tesla scaled to approximately 368,000 deliveries in 2019 (up from just 76,000 in 2016) and then nearly 500,000 in 2020 as Model 3 volumes ramped and the 2020-launched similarly priced Model Y came into play as well, laying the foundation for the company's 1.8 million deliveries in 2023. That history illustrates how a lower entry price can unlock latent demand.

This new vehicle probably won't drive a Model 3-like step change by itself, but it could strengthen two important vectors. The first, of course, is affordability. A credible Tesla, under the current Model 3 and Y price points, addresses a widening gap in the electric vehicle market as interest rates make affordability more challenging.

The second way this new, more affordable vehicle can help unlock more demand is with autonomy. Tesla continues to frame its future in terms of AI, software, and fleet-based profits -- and recent steps toward an autonomous ride-sharing service suggest the next wave of vehicles will be built with self-driving in mind from day one. A budget Tesla that's full self-driving ready gives owners a potential path to deploy their cars into Tesla's planned Robotaxi network when regulations and software allow.

The investment lens, then, is about magnitude and timing. Near term, Tesla continues to face challenges as sales have dipped. In the second quarter, deliveries were down year over year. However, a late-2025 volume ramp for an affordable, autonomy-ready Tesla could stabilize unit trends while reinforcing the company's software narrative, which is crucial for valuation.

Tesla trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 250, reflecting expectations for faster growth and an expanding profit margin, driven by growing software-based sales. While a successful launch of Tesla's upcoming, more affordable model doesn't guarantee those outcomes, it likely improves the odds that today's premium proves defensible.

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Daniel Sparks and/or his clients have positions in Tesla. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.