Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on Global Net Lease, Inc. on Valueinvestorsclub.com by monkeymadness. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on GNL. Global Net Lease, Inc.'s share was trading at $8.08 as of September 17th. GNL’s trailing P/E was 116.60 according to Yahoo Finance.

Global Net Lease (GNL) is a net lease REIT undergoing a significant transformation following the internalization of management and a series of strategic portfolio moves. Historically viewed as a poorly structured externally managed REIT, GNL is now repositioning itself to resemble a traditional net lease peer. The company has aggressively delevered and rationalized its portfolio, completing nearly $3 billion of dispositions since its merger with RTL, including the sale of a $1.7 billion strip center portfolio that simplified the business into a pure-play net lease REIT.

These actions have reduced leverage from 8.3x in mid-2023 to a pro forma 6.5x, with further asset sales expected to bring it closer to 6.0x, while also improving portfolio quality with heavier exposure to industrial and single-tenant retail. Management has also achieved $80 million in G&A savings, putting costs at the low end of peers, and positioned the business with stronger investment-grade tenancy exposure than competitors.

Despite this progress, the stock trades at just 7.4x FY25E AFFO versus 12–15x for peers, reflecting lingering concerns about office exposure and past governance. Yet the business pays a well-covered 11% dividend and has authorized a $300 million buyback program, already repurchasing $50 million in Q1 2025. With ~$70 million of excess cash flow expected next year, once leverage targets are met, GNL has significant capacity for further capital return.

Management’s FY25 guidance underestimates run-rate savings, with FY26 AFFO likely to exceed $1.00. Even on management’s lower estimates, shares look cheap, and at a conservative 10x multiple the stock underwrites to a 25% three-year IRR. Catalysts include further deleveraging, continued buybacks, and the market recognizing GNL as a pure-play net lease REIT. If the valuation gap persists, an outright sale remains a credible outcome, offering multiple paths for investors to realize upside.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on STAG Industrial, Inc. (STAG) by Steve Wagner in May 2025, which highlighted strong leasing spreads, disciplined asset recycling, a conservative balance sheet, and resilient industrial fundamentals. The company’s stock price has appreciated approximately by 6.92% since our coverage. The thesis still stands as STAG benefits from e-commerce tailwinds. Monkeymadness shares a similar bullish perspective on Global Net Lease, Inc. (GNL) but emphasizes transformation and capital return.

Global Net Lease, Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 21 hedge fund portfolios held GNL at the end of the second quarter which was 24 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of GNL as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.