Where Will GE Aerospace Stock Be in 3 Years?

Key Points

• GE Aerospace engines dominate the narrowbody and widebody markets.

• The stock's valuation reflects the company's long-term growth opportunity from servicing its fleet of engines.

• A snapshot of the company in 2028 should show a very attractive growth profile.

• 10 stocks we like better than GE Aerospace ›

Where will GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE) stock be in three years? It's a fascinating question because the company recently outlined its outlook for 2028, discussing the market fundamentals and operating conditions that will drive it there. However, while accepting those assumptions is one thing, investors also need to consider what kind of investment proposition GE Aerospace will be when looking out from 2028. Here's one view of how that might look.

GE Aerospace in 2028

Management combined its second-quarter earnings call with an update on its 2028 outlook. The good news is that the numbers represent a significant improvement over the 2028 outlook presented last year during GE's investor day presentation.

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Data source: GE Aerospace presentations. *Compound annual growth 2024-2028. **Compound annual growth 2025-2028.

To put these figures into context, GE's current market cap is $317 billion, a figure that implies GE will trade on 36 times FCF in 2028. That's a hefty valuation, and no investor is buying the stock based on the idea that the company will hit $8.5 billion in FCF in 2028 and then generate low single-digit growth (in line with GDP growth) after that.

Instead, investors are speculating that GE's dominant position in commercial airplane engines will ensure many decades of growth from lucrative, higher-margin services sales.

They have a point.

GE Aerospace's long-term growth opportunity

The company's business model rests on establishing its engines in airplane manufacturers' (principally Boeing and Airbus) programs and then ramping up engine sales to airlines placing orders for aircraft. Because engines can be run for up to 40 years, every engine installed on an aircraft creates a multidecade opportunity for service sales, which are typically generated via "shop visits."

Image source: Getty Images.

The term "shop visits" may need a rethink, as they are not regular occurrences. Instead, an engine typically undergoes two or three shop visits over its lifetime, during which it's brought in for comprehensive maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO).

The business model and GE's position in commercial aerospace strongly support the idea of long-term growth. For example, GE's joint venture with Safran, CFM International, manufactures the LEAP engine, the only engine option for the Boeing 737 MAX, and one of two options for the Airbus A320neo family. These two airplanes are the modern narrowbody workhorses of the skies.

Narrowbody engine profit set to grow significantly to 2028

A CFM engine (CFM56) also powers the legacy Boeing 737s and is an option on the legacy A320 family of aircraft. As such, CFM engines power about 75% of narrowbody flight departures , and GE will continue to generate services revenue on the CFM56 for many years to come as it builds on services revenue from the LEAP engine.

Management expects the fleet of LEAP engines to triple by 2030, with profit from LEAP and the older CFM56 engines equivalent by that year. To put the ongoing CFM56 profit opportunity into perspective, CFO Rahul Ghai outlined on the second-quarter earnings call that "approximately 40% of CFM56 fleet has yet to undergo a first shop visit. And a majority of the operators anticipate keeping these engines in service well into 2030s."

All told, management expects a 70% increase in narrowbody profit by 2028.

Image source: Getty Images.

Widebody engine profit is also set to play a significant role

GE also holds a dominant position in widebody aircraft, not least because it powers more than 50% of widebody departures. It has GE engines on the Boeing 777 (the GE90 engine), the Boeing 787 Dreamliner (GEnx), and will have an engine on the upcoming Boeing 777X (GE9X).

Just as with the older CFM56 on narrowbody engines, investors shouldn't underestimate the potential for the GE90 to contribute meaningfully to profits for many years to come. Ghai noted 70% of the GE90 fleet has "yet to undergo a second shop visit." That's particularly significant as Ghai said "the scope for wide-body shop visits typically increases by about 50% during the second shop visits."

As such, management expects a 40% increase in widebody profit by 2028.

Image source: Getty Images.

What it means to investors

All told, GE expects substantive profit improvement by 2028, driven by the favorable dynamics in its commercial aerospace business as discussed above. While the valuation appears rich, a snapshot of GE in 2028 should show a company starting to ramp up LEAP service revenue as CFM56 sales decline. On the widebody side, the Boeing 777X should be well into operation, and investors will begin penciling in future revenue from the GE9X.

As such, a snapshot of GE in 2028 should show a company growing earnings at a mid-teens rate with a dominant market position, and a business model that ensures many years of secure growth ahead. That might be enough to justify its valuation.

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Lee Samaha has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends GE Aerospace. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.