Could MRNA's Upcoming Product Launches Reduce COVID Sales Dependency?

Moderna MRNA is focusing on launching up to 10 new marketed products over the next four years, targeting a market opportunity of over $30 billion. These launches are central to Moderna’s strategy to drive revenue growth and reduce its dependence on the COVID-19 vaccine Spikevax.

Spikevax was Moderna’s first marketed product, which helped transform the mRNA-based vaccine-maker into one of the most profitable players in the healthcare sector. However, sales have declined sharply as pandemic-driven demand has faded. Though the company added a second marketed product to its portfolio last year with its RSV vaccine mResvia, the initial uptake was significantly weaker than expected. More recently, the company secured approval for a third marketed product, mNexspike, a next-generation, refrigerator-stable version of Spikevax.

To offset declining COVID sales, Moderna is advancing a broad, late-stage pipeline across respiratory, infectious disease and oncology categories. Key vaccine programs include mRNA-1647 (for CMV), mRNA-1083 (for COVID-19 plus influenza) and mRNA-1010 (for standalone influenza) vaccines. Before the end of 2025, the company intends to report data from the CMV study and resubmit a regulatory filing to the FDA for the COVID/flu combination vaccine.

An important candidate in the company’s pipeline is intismeran autogene (formerly, mRNA-4157), a personalized cancer therapy being developed in partnership with Merck MRK. Both Moderna and Merck are evaluating the therapy in three pivotal phase III studies, one in the melanoma indication and the other two in the non-small cell lung cancer space. It is also being evaluated in separate mid-stage studies for high-risk bladder cancers, adjuvant renal cell carcinoma and first-line metastatic melanoma. A potential launch for intismeran is targeted for 2027.

MRNA Faces Stiff Competition in Target Markets

Like Moderna, Pfizer PFE and its partner BioNTech BNTX are notable peers that have experienced significant revenue fluctuations with their jointly developed COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty. As demand for the vaccine continues to wane, both companies have turned to adjacent vaccine and therapeutic areas. While Pfizer and BioNTech are jointly developing a COVID-19 and influenza combination vaccine, they are also working independently to advance standalone pipeline candidates.

Pfizer also competes with Moderna in the RSV space, marketing Abrysvo. It is also focused on diversifying its portfolio of marketed drugs, particularly in oncology, which should support top-line growth in 2025 and beyond.

BioNTech, meanwhile, has turned to oncology as its primary long-term growth driver. A key candidate in the company’s portfolio is BNT327, an investigational antibody designed to target both PD-1 and VEGF. This candidate, which is being developed in partnership with Bristol Myers, is being evaluated across several clinical studies, targeting different cancer indications.

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