Earnings are arguably the most important single number on a company's quarterly financial report. Wall Street clearly dives into all of the other metrics and management's input, but the EPS figure helps cut through all the noise.
We know earnings results are vital, but how a company performs compared to bottom line expectations can be even more important when it comes to stock prices, especially in the near-term. This means that investors might want to take advantage of these earnings surprises.
Hunting for 'earnings whispers' or companies poised to beat their quarterly earnings estimates is a somewhat common practice. But that doesn't make it easy. One way that has been proven to work is by using the Zacks Earnings ESP tool.
The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information.
The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.
When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.
Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.
Should You Consider McKesson?
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. McKesson (MCK) earns a #3 (Hold) 30 days from its next quarterly earnings release on November 5, 2025, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $8.95 a share.
MCK has an Earnings ESP figure of +1.24%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $8.95 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $8.84. McKesson is one of a large database of stocks with positive ESPs. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
MCK is just one of a large group of Medical stocks with a positive ESP figure. Illumina (ILMN) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Slated to report earnings on November 3, 2025, Illumina holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and its Most Accurate Estimate is $1.18 a share 28 days from its next quarterly update.
For Illumina, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.16 is +1.72%.
MCK and ILMN's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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McKesson Corporation (MCK): Free Stock Analysis Report Illumina, Inc. (ILMN): Free Stock Analysis ReportThis article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
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