These 2 AI Stocks Could Surpass Oracle in Market Cap by 2030

Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) quietly transformed itself over the past couple of years from an aging database giant into a critical enabler of the global artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout. With a staggering $455 billion in contracted backlog as of the end of its fiscal 2026 first quarter (which ended Aug. 31), the tech company is likely to see significant revenue expansion for several years into the future. Its shares have already risen by more than 71% so far in 2025, and its market cap now exceeds $801 billion.

However, it may not grow as quickly as some smaller, more flexible companies that are built entirely around data, AI models, and automation.

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Oracle could still stumble

Oracle has become a force to reckon with in the AI infrastructure space, driven by its multiyear deals with AI leaders such as OpenAI, xAI, Meta Platforms, Advanced Micro Devices, and Nvidia.

In its fiscal first quarter, Oracle's cloud infrastructure revenue spiked 54% year over year to $3.3 billion. Oracle's AI database (which vectorizes data to make it understandable for large language models) and multicloud strategy (embedding its database regions across hyperscalers such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Alphabet's Google Cloud) are proving to be key competitive advantages. These strategies should result in higher revenue and customer stickiness.

Still, despite its exceptional operational performance, the company missed analysts' consensus estimates for revenue and earnings in fiscal Q1. It also reported negative free cash flow. Oracle says it expects to lay out $35 billion in capital expenditures in fiscal 2026. All this suggests that management is sacrificing near-term profits for potential long-term gains.

Oracle's excessive dependence on a few massive contracts, such as its $300 billion deal with OpenAI, also exposes it to a high degree of counterparty risk. If OpenAI changes architectures or pivots away from Oracle Cloud, it could dramatically affect Oracle's performance.

This is why investors looking at Oracle might want to consider a couple of alternatives instead. There are two companies, in particular, that have performance potential that could help them grow faster than Oracle and even surpass Oracle's $801 billion market capitalization by 2030.

Palantir: $436 billion market cap

While Oracle is one of the dominant players in global AI infrastructure buildout, Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) has become a prominent enterprise AI player by helping governments and commercial organizations make data-driven decisions.

Palantir's performance is its key to surpassing Oracle's market cap by 2030. In the second quarter, the company's revenue jumped 48% year over year to surpass $1 billion. Its operating margin improved by 9 percentage points to 46% while adjusted free cash flow reached $569 million. Palantir is proving it can capture and monetize demand for AI-powered software solutions.

Palantir's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) has become its main growth engine. AIP integrates large language models with its proprietary, ontology-based architecture -- a framework that associates physical assets with their digital representations. This enables it to address complex, real-world enterprise challenges accurately, reliably, and cost-effectively. Additionally, the company's go-to-market strategy, which involves running boot camps to enable potential clients to test how AIP would work in their live workflows, has dramatically accelerated its sales cycle. AIP's real-world impacts are already visible. Clients are seeing significant gains in speed, accuracy, and operational efficiency across critical workflows.

Palantir's government business has a sticky customer base. Since various government agencies and departments use its software in mission-critical operations, it's complex to switch to a competing provider. Meanwhile, the U.S. Army's $10 billion, 10-year enterprise contract with Palantir provides a steady, long-term revenue base.

Even better, Palantir can scale up its software offerings, such as Foundry, Gotham, and AIP, using far fewer resources, relatively speaking, than a hardware-based business like Oracle.

Palantir stock is admittedly extremely expensive, trading at 204.8 times its expected forward earnings. While the risk of valuation compression remains, history shows that growth companies that are dominant in their industries can keep trading at high premiums for long periods of time. If Palantir maintains a long-term revenue growth rate of over 30% and an operating margin of over 40%, its market cap could exceed Oracle's by 2030.

Eli Lilly: $800 billion market cap

Eli Lilly's (NYSE: LLY) market capitalization could surpass Oracle's well before 2030, considering the company is already nearly equal to it. In the second quarter, its revenue rose 38% year over year to $15.6 billion, while non-GAAP earnings per share surged 61% to $6.31. Management has also significantly increased its revenue and earnings guidance for 2025.

The biggest growth driver for the business is tirzepatide, which Lilly markets as Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes and Zepbound for weight management. Mounjaro and Zepbound reported revenues of $5.2 billion and $3.4 billion, respectively, in the second quarter. In the first half of 2025, Eli Lilly produced 1.6 times as many salable tirzepatide doses as it did in the prior-year period. While Eli Lilly accounted for a 57% share of U.S. prescriptions for incretin analogues (drugs that mimic gut hormones), the rapid ramp-up in manufacturing capacity of tirzepatide could help the company capture an even bigger share in the coming months.

Tirzepatide also demonstrated cardiovascular benefits in a large, phase 3 clinical study. This may help the drug secure expanded insurance coverage and further penetration in the diabetes and weight loss markets.

Eli Lilly expects that orforglipron, its candidate for a once-daily oral GLP-1 agonist, will be its next big catalyst. Because orforglipron removes the need for injections from the equation, and also has a lower manufacturing cost, this oral weight loss and diabetes drug could see rapid adoption once it earns regulatory approval.

Beyond incretin analogues, Lilly's drug pipeline also features late-stage assets such as donanemab for Alzheimer's disease and retatrutide for metabolic disorders. Approvals of these drugs would help further diversify the company's portfolio. Market research company Evaluate forecasts that tirzepatide will generate nearly $62 billion in annual revenue by 2030. Hence, it seems quite possible for Eli Lilly to increase its revenue at an annualized rate of over 20% and maintain operating margins over 40% through the next five years. That momentum could easily push its market capitalization past that of Oracle.

Manali Pradhan has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.