This Insider Just Made a Massive Bet on Transocean's Comeback

Markets are good at assimilating information as it comes in, incorporating it into valuations and price action relatively quickly—but that doesn’t mean they’re truly efficient. By focusing on current events, markets might miss signs that point to future upside potential. 

This tendency creates opportunities, like the one available in the energy sector today.

With crude oil prices remaining at cyclical lows and muted demand from global giants like the United States and China, there seems to be limited interest from energy investors.

But one recent event signals a possible turning point for oil and gas investors: a bold move by a major shareholder in leading offshore drilling contractor, Transocean Ltd. (NYSE: RIG).

Insider Buy Alert: A Big Bet on a Rebound

On Sept. 24, Transocean conducted a public stock offering of 4 million shares at $3.05 each. Typically, a public stock offering would trigger selling due to share dilution, which reduces both ownership and earnings per share (EPS).

But not this time. RIG stock ended the month of September up 4.9%.

Why? Part of the reason is that all 4 million shares, valued at $12.2 million, were purchased by an existing shareholder: Perestoika Ltd., a Cyprus-based investment fund. This is highly unusual and shows strong conviction in RIG stock from a major investor.

Most public offerings are designed to attract new capital, so they are primarily marketed to institutional investors (like mutual funds, hedge funds, or pension funds) and the general public.

Existing shareholders often choose not to participate in public offerings because they accept slight dilution as a fair trade-off for the company’s strengthened financial position. Those who do participate typically want to maintain their ownership stake, show their confidence in the company, or buy shares at a discount.

Because Perestroika purchased all the newly issued shares, its ownership stake actually increased slightly (from just under 10% to just over 10%), meaning it avoided any share dilution entirely.

Debt Reduction Sets the Stage for Higher EPS

Transocean plans to use the funds to improve overall profitability by reducing its debt, which will also reduce interest payments. The company is taking advantage of the downturn in oil prices to strengthen its balance before the sector rebounds. 

This proactive decision may prove prescient if the current Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle spurs global economic growth and increases oil demand—historically a reliable correlation. Such a scenario would lift both oil prices and demand for offshore drilling services, a space where Transocean operates.

Undervalued and Underappreciated

Even with the recent rally, Transocean stock trades at only 70% of its 52-week high, leaving considerable upside potential on the table. Analysts have given RIG stock a consensus price target of $4.26, implying a 26.5% gain from current levels. However, this consensus likely underestimates the impact of both the company's balance sheet improvements and a potential oil price rebound. 

Considering that the stock trades at less than half of its 2023 high of just under $9 a share, a comeback to its 52-week high—or more—could be possible.

While this price may seem a long way from today’s bearish momentum, Transocean trades at a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of only 0.3x compared to the energy sector’s 4.5x average. This discount is understandable considering the lack of demand in drilling and low oil prices.

To put the value gap in perspective, the stock trades at a price-to-book ratio of just 0.3x, far below the energy sector average of 4.5x. This extreme discount reflects current weakness in drilling demand and oil prices. But should oil rally and Transocean execute its debt strategy effectively, this valuation gap could close fast—potentially triggering a 70% or greater stock surge.

Transocean offers a unique opportunity for investors willing to look beyond today's oil market malaise. The insider purchase by Perestroika, combined with strategic debt reduction, sets a compelling foundation for stronger EPS growth—especially in a rising oil price environment.

As markets remain focused on the present, investors who position ahead of the curve could find significant upside in undervalued oil drilling stocks like Transocean.

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The article "This Insider Just Made a Massive Bet on Transocean's Comeback" first appeared on MarketBeat.