Chipotle Stock Falls 27% in 3 Months: Buy the Dip or Stay Cautious?

Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. CMG have fallen 27.3% over the past three months, much steeper than the industry’s 10.5% decline. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has advanced 8.5%, highlighting Chipotle’s underperformance compared with its peers and the broader market.

In the same time frame, shares of other industry players like Darden Restaurants, Inc. DRI, Restaurant Brands International Inc. QSR and CAVA Group, Inc. CAVA have declined 11.7%, 0.6% and 30.9%, respectively.

Price Performance

Factors Behind Chipotle’s Recent Struggles

Chipotle is being weighed down by a challenging consumer environment that has made traffic trends volatile. Management noted that lower-income customers have become increasingly value-conscious, often seeking cheaper meal options promoted by competitors. This shift has resulted in periodic share loss, particularly when consumer sentiment dips, underscoring how sensitive Chipotle’s sales are to macroeconomic headwinds and pricing perception.

At the same time, the company is grappling with cost pressures. Labor constraints have been concerning, as wage inflation persists despite fluctuating guest volumes. Marketing expenses have also climbed as Chipotle attempts to maintain visibility and engagement through campaigns and limited-time offerings.

While efficiency initiatives like new back-of-house equipment and prep improvements are expected to help in the long term, these investments add near-term complexity and weigh on operating leverage when sales are uneven.

Another challenge is competitive intensity. Rivals are winning over value-seeking diners with aggressive bundles and low-price offerings, making it harder for Chipotle to highlight its value proposition.

Management admitted the brand has not been getting sufficient credit from consumers for its relative affordability versus other fast-casual and quick-service chains. Bridging this perception gap, while continuing to drive innovation and guest loyalty, is critical, but it remains an uphill battle in the current environment.

Chipotle Estimate Revision

Estimates for CMG’s 2025 earnings have moved down from $1.21 to $1.20 in the past 7 days. The company’s earnings in 2025 are likely to witness year-over-year growth of 7.1%. Then again, Darden Restaurants, Restaurant Brands and CAVA’s earnings for the current year are likely to witness year-over-year increases of 11%, 9.3% and 33.3%, respectively.

Key Drivers Poised to Support a Rebound

One important growth lever for Chipotle is its ongoing investment in operations and technology. The rollout of back-of-house equipment, such as high-capacity fryers, dual-sided planchas and automated prep tools, is expected to streamline kitchen efficiency, improve consistency and free up staff for peak service times. These changes not only boost throughput but also enhance the guest experience.

As more restaurants adopt this equipment package, Chipotle may unlock revenue streams like catering, which remains a relatively small contributor today but carries strong long-term potential.

Menu innovation and marketing are also central to CMG’s rebound. Limited-time offerings such as Chipotle Honey Chicken and new sides like Adobo Ranch have proven highly popular, drawing incremental traffic and positive guest feedback. The company is planning to ramp up its cadence of product launches, reintroducing proven favorites while testing new dips, sides and proteins. 

Alongside this, marketing campaigns like “Summer of Extras” have shown the ability to drive engagement, particularly among lapsed and lower-frequency customers. Expanding on these learnings, Chipotle aims to highlight its strong value-for-money positioning, which management believes is still underappreciated by consumers.

Finally, digital and international expansion offer meaningful upside. With more than 40 million loyalty members, half of whom are active, Chipotle continues to deepen its digital ecosystem through personalization, AI-driven engagement and gamified rewards programs that encourage repeat visits.

On the global front, management is scaling in Canada, Europe and the Middle East, with encouraging unit economics, while planning entry into Mexico and new markets through partnerships. Combined with the long-term target of 7,000 North American restaurants, these initiatives give Chipotle a significant runway for growth, supporting its goal of returning to mid-single-digit comps and higher average unit volumes.

CMG Valuation

From the valuation point of view, the stock is still trading at a premium despite the recent decline. Chipotle’s forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio stands at 29.86, higher than the industry’s ratio of 23.14 and the S&P 500's ratio of 21.65. This suggests that investors may pay a high price relative to the company's expected earnings growth.

P/E (F12M)

Wrapping Up

Chipotle remains a strong brand with meaningful long-term growth drivers, including ongoing operational upgrades, consistent menu innovation, and an expanding digital and international footprint. These initiatives position the company well to regain momentum once consumer sentiment stabilizes.

However, near-term pressures from cost inflation, competitive discounting and value-sensitive diners are likely to keep performance uneven, while the stock continues to trade at a premium compared to peers. For this reason, existing investors may benefit from holding their positions and waiting for the company’s growth strategies to play out, but fresh buyers should be approached cautiously until visibility on recovery improves.

CMG currently has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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