Key Points
Apple's iPhone sales are growing at a healthy clip, and demand for its new iPhone 17 lineup appears strong.
But Apple's AI features are disappointing, and the company has yet to prove it has a significant AI strategy.
The next year could continue to disappoint Apple investors as the company seeks to find its AI footing.
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) is one of the world's biggest technology companies, yet the company has failed to significantly benefit from artificial intelligence (AI) in any meaningful way. That's more of a general consensus than a hot take on Apple. If you follow the company even loosely, you know that Apple's slow-and-steady approach to innovation has come under fire for years now.
And yet, Apple continues to make some of the best consumer technology products on the market. Its latest iPhone 17 lineup appears to be attracting significant interest, and revenue from its digital services is climbing higher.
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While my crystal ball is permanently cloudy, here's where I think all of this could take Apple over the next year.
What's going well at Apple right now
Apple's underlying business is still driven by sales of the iPhone, and that's unlikely to change any time soon. iPhone sales rose by 13.5% in the third quarter to $44.5 billion as consumers rushed to buy devices on worries that tariffs could drive prices higher. Those sales helped boost total revenue by nearly 10% to $94 billion, the largest revenue growth for the company in four years.
More good news is likely on the way for the company and its investors, as initial demand for its new iPhone 17 lineup appears to be high. A Morgan Stanley estimate says "The iPhone 17 cycle is modestly stronger than we originally expected," and a J.P. Morgan Chase analyst said the iPhone 17 Pro has higher demand than the iPhone 16 Pro when it first launched.
Another positive is that Apple's management said on the third-quarter earnings call that it expects revenue to grow by mid- to high-single digits in the fourth quarter (which will likely be reported later this month).
What's more, the company continues to benefit from expanding services revenue. Apple services revenue rose by 13% to $27.4 billion in the quarter. Sales from its services -- which include its AppleCare products, AppleTV+, Apple Music, and Apple Fitness+, among others -- accounted for 29% of total sales in the second quarter. That's up from 25% two years ago.
Where Apple continues to fall short
Of course, Apple isn't without some significant concerns right now. Despite a seemingly successful iPhone launch, strong third-quarter results, and rising services revenue, the company still appears to be fumbling in the artificial intelligence space.
It's been a couple of years since Apple announced its Apple Intelligence features for its products, which have mostly failed to impress compared to advanced systems from Alphabet and OpenAI. Some AI features that were advertised in commercials two years ago still haven't been released, which was the subject of a recent lawsuit.
Apple has tried to catch up and has partnered with OpenAI to hand off more complex questions and tasks to ChatGPT when Siri can't handle them. But even with the iPhone 17 launch, there was little to show investors that Apple is pursuing AI with much gusto. CEO Tim Cook said on the third-quarter earnings call that Apple would consider making deals that could improve its AI position, saying, "We're very open to M&A that accelerates our road map."
Bloomberg also recently reported that Apple has developed an internal AI chatbot used by employees and is working on an AI-based search engine and a new version of Siri. But the estimated release for some of those services, if they ever see the light of day, isn't until 2027.
Where will Apple be in a year?
The next year feels pretty significant for Apple. The company has failed to make meaningful strides with its AI ambitions, and many investors have already lost their patience. Apple stock has failed to keep pace with the S&P 500 index over the past three years.
I'm personally giving the company a little more time before considering what to do with my Apple shares. I think the company could eventually release an improved Siri and other features that rely on an outside AI model -- from OpenAI or Anthropic -- that capture the attention of its users.
But I do think the next year may be another period of waiting for Apple investors as the company tries to find its AI footing.
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JPMorgan Chase is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Chris Neiger has positions in Apple. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Apple, and JPMorgan Chase. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
