CSX Gears Up to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards?

CSX Corporation CSX is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 16, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised southward by 2.3% over the past 60 days to 43 cents per share. The consensus mark has declined 6.5% from the third-quarter 2024 actuals. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $3.6 billion, indicating a 0.5% decrease from the third-quarter 2024 actuals. 

CSX has a disappointing earnings surprise history, having lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the preceding four quarters and outpaced the mark in the remaining quarter, the average miss being 2.46%.

CSX Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

 

CSX Corporation price-eps-surprise | CSX Corporation Quote

Let us see how things have shaped up for CSX this earnings season.

Factors Likely to Have Influenced CSX's Q3 Performance

CSX's performance in the to-be-reported quarter is expected to have been significantly impacted by a decline in coal revenues, fuel surcharges and merchandise volume.

Our estimate for third-quarter coal revenues is pegged at 481.6 million, indicating a 13% downfall from the year-ago reported figure. For Intermodal revenues, our estimate is pegged at $494.9 million, indicating a 2.8% decline from the year-ago reported figure.

Moreover, rail network challenges are anticipated to continue pressuring CSX’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter, with locomotive and crew shortages, along with other service disruptions, undermining operational efficiency and shipment volumes. Persistent supply-chain constraints are likely to have strained service levels, while elevated capital expenditure is expected to have affected the company’s bottom line.

What Our Model Says About CSX

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for CSX this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

CSX has an Earnings ESP of -0.86% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Highlights of CSX’s Q2 Earnings

Quarterly earnings per share of 44 cents beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 42 cents but decreased 10.2% on a year-over-year basis on the back of lower revenues. Total revenues of $3.57 million missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.58 million and declined 3.4% year over year. The downside was due to lower export coal prices, reduced fuel surcharge and a decline in merchandise volume.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide CHRW has an Earnings ESP of +0.24% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. CHRW is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 29. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 0.78% upward over the past 60 days. CHRW's earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the preceding four quarters, the average beat being 11.83%. 

United Airlines UAL is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 15, after market close.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings has been unchanged over the past 60 days at $2.64 per share. The consensus mark has declined 20.7% from the third-quarter 2024 actual. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $15.27 billion, indicating a 2.9% increase from the third-quarter 2024 actual.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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