There's no such thing as a completely "safe" stock, but some stocks are less risky than others. That's particularly true during times of extreme uncertainty and volatility. The major stock indices have been in free fall since President Donald Trump announced sweeping tariffs last week, and there haven't been many places for investors to hide.
Shares of telecom giant AT&T (NYSE: T) have dropped along with the broader stock market, but as this tariff story plays out in the coming weeks and months, AT&T could prove itself to be a relatively safe bet. Here's why.
A sticky subscription business
For most people, going without a smartphone and wireless service would be like going without electricity. The devices have become so ingrained in everyday life that wireless service would likely be far down the list of spending to cut in response to economic hardship.
That's not to say that AT&T won't feel some pain during an economic downturn. Consumers could delay smartphone upgrades, seek out more affordable wireless plans, or delay monthly payments as much as they can. Plan downgrades would sting for AT&T, and payment delays could temporarily reduce cash flow.
In 2022, AT&T was forced to slash its cash-flow outlook for the year because customers were slow to pay their bills. Something similar could happen this year.
One trick AT&T has up its sleeve this time around is a large fiber internet business. The company has been expanding its fiber business over the past few years and been pushing more customers to bundle fiber and wireless together.
These so-called "converged" customers are valuable. Nearly 40% of fiber subscribers are also wireless subscribers and tend to be happier with the service and less likely to switch providers. Like wireless service, home internet service is essential and unlikely to be dropped.
An improved balance sheet
While AT&T has been investing in its fiber and wireless networks, it's also been working to reduce its debt. The company racked up debt with misguided media acquisitions in the past, and it's taken time to exit the media business and strengthen its financial position.
Things are going well enough on that front that AT&T plans to allocate at least $20 billion to share buybacks through 2027. The company reduced its net debt by around $25 billion from 2020 through 2024 and removed billions in annual costs. It's far less fragile today than it was a few years ago, which positions it well to weather the storm ahead.
The impact of an economic slowdown could lead AT&T to slow down on share buybacks, especially if its cash flow is hit by consumers delaying payments. While this would be a negative for investors, a stronger balance sheet makes the company more resilient.
A relatively safe bet
None of this is to say that AT&T stock won't drop significantly from here. It absolutely could, given that we're in unprecedented territory with regards to the Trump administration's tariffs. But what investors need to be looking for are companies that are likely to make it through to the other side and thrive in the future. AT&T appears to be one of those companies.
AT&T's cash flow could take a hit as customers delay payments. However, the subscription wireless and fiber businesses are sticky, and those who bundle both services are unlikely to seriously consider switching providers. No stock is entirely safe from the tariff-induced chaos, but AT&T is a relatively safe choice for long-term investors.
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Timothy Green has positions in AT&T. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
