Where Will NuScale Power Be in 17 Years?

NuScale Power (NYSE: SMR) was created in 2007 for a single purpose: to bring the world's first small modular nuclear reactor design to market. Roughly 17 years later, the company is closer than ever to achieving this vision. In fact, it is likely to become the first company to make the real-world adoption of small-scale nuclear reactors a reality.

Notably, the company's market cap remains at just $10 billion. The next 17 years of the company's history could see that figure balloon higher. There are three storylines in particular to track closely.

1. When will NuScale Power book its first order?

With funding support from its majority investor, Fluor (NYSE: FLR), NuScale became the first company to receive certification from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 2023 for its 50 megawatt (MW) unit. In May of 2025, it received certification for a larger, 77 MW version. With these certifications in hand, NuScale began production of 12 modular units -- enough to complete a first order. Management believes a deal should be achieved by the end of the year.

This milestone should be reached fairly soon. But it's a game-changer for both the company and the industry as a whole. Small nuclear reactors have been a promising technology for decades, yet cost, feasibility, and societal pushback have prevented their real-world adoption. But now, the future is finally here. Well, almost. If NuScale can close a deal this year for reactors that are not only certified but also already under construction, the age of small modular reactors will have finally arrived.

Note that it may take until 2030 for any potential deal to actually be completed, given long engineering timelines. But revenue should be accrued significantly before then, causing investment and excitement to ramp considerably across the sector.

2. How fast will the competition catch up?

If NuScale completes its first order this year, the next question becomes: When will the competition catch up? There are many other players in the space, including publicly traded peers like Oklo, Westinghouse, and GE Vernova. Each company has a slightly different strategy.

NuScale is mostly focused on civilian-grade commercial power generation. Oklo, on the other hand, is developing a compact liquid-metal fast reactor. These reactors differ from the traditional water-cooled designs that NuScale specializes in. Through partially owned GE Hitachi, GE Vernova also has some exposure to smaller reactors, though its design is relatively large and uses a simpler boiling water design. Westinghouse, co-owned by Brookfield Renewable and Cameco, already has a project planned in the U.K,, though it still lacks complete certification.

While water-cooled designs are arguably more proven, with clearer certification pathways, Oklo's approach has clear advantages when it comes to sustainability (its reactors can run on recycled nuclear fuel) and size (its reactors can be a fraction of the size of NuScale's, offering advantages in remote areas).

Competitors like Oklo, Westinghouse, and GE Vernova may still be years away from SMR certification, giving NuScale a structural advantage when it comes to booking customers, building scale, and proving its technology in real-world environments. But as mentioned, NuScale's potential success will draw increased interest from investors and customers. Monitoring the competition over the next two to five years will be critical for every nuclear investor.

Image source: Getty Images.

3. Which problems will small modular nuclear reactors solve?

Long term, the biggest open question is which industries will see the greatest adoption of small, modular nuclear reactors.

If ultra-compact reactors for remote worksites and communities become the biggest winners, Oklo arguably has a leading position. But if electric utilities looking to ditch fossil fuels and complement the intermittency of conventional renewable energy generation begin to adopt SMRs, or if data centers thirsty for power due to rising demand for artificial intelligence look to nuclear, NuScale and Westinghouse have an advantage. Boiling water reactors like GE Vernova's, however, have a long history of safety. If adoption of more complex SMR designs struggles, we could see simpler systems like this succeed.

Put simply, picking a small modular reactor stock isn't as simple as predicting a rise in demand for such technologies. Which specific industries adopt these technologies will help lead investors to the right pick. With artificial intelligence spending expected to rise by 30% per year over the next decades, plus a rise in demand from utilities looking to meet clean energy mandates and stabilize their grids, I'm expecting demand for NuScale's products to soar over the next 17 years.

Just understand that the revenue curve may be slower than expected. These projects take time to construct and build real-world validation. No matter which nuclear stock you choose, be sure to maintain a long time horizon.

Ryan Vanzo has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool recommends Brookfield Renewable Partners, Cameco, Ge Vernova, and NuScale Power. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.