What's in the Cards for Philip Morris Stock in Q3 Earnings Release?

Philip Morris International Inc. PM is likely to witness top-and bottom-line growth when it reports third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 21. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $10.7 billion, indicating an 8% increase from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. 

The consensus mark for earnings has declined by a penny in the past seven days to $2.10 per share, which suggests a rise of almost 10% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter. PM has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.8%, on average.

PM: Key Factors to Watch

Philip Morris’ third-quarter 2025 performance is likely to have been shaped by continued momentum in its smoke-free portfolio, with IQOS, ZYN and VEEV driving growth. Management expects double-digit volume growth in smoke-free products for the second half of 2025. The company’s ongoing multicategory strategy should help accelerate user conversion from combustibles to smoke-free products, reinforcing margin growth. Continued gains in Europe and Japan, coupled with ZYN’s strong U.S. performance, position PM for sustained top-line strength.

Philip Morris’ operational efficiency and pricing initiatives are likely to play a critical role in protecting profitability. The company remains on track toward achieving $2 billion in gross cost savings under its 2024-2026 program, driven by manufacturing productivity and overhead optimization. However, investments in marketing, brand equity and capacity may weigh on profitability. The company expects adjusted diluted EPS in the range of $2.08-$2.13 for the quarter, reflecting dynamic earnings momentum and a favorable currency variance.

Earnings Whispers for PM Stock

Our proven model doesn’t conclusively predict an earnings beat for Philip Morris this time. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat, which is not the case here. 

Philip Morris carries a Zacks Rank #3 and has an Earnings ESP of -0.66%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks With the Favorable Combination

Here are some companies worth considering, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Estee Lauder EL currently has an Earnings ESP of +1.52% and a Zacks Rank of 2. The company is likely to register a jump in the top line when it reports third-quarter 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Estee Lauder’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $3.38 billion, which suggests an increase of 0.5% from the prior-year quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Estee Lauder’s quarterly earnings per share stands at 14 cents, which is in line with the year-ago period. EL has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 71.5%, on average.

Celsius Holdings CELH currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.82% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register a top-line increase when it reports third-quarter 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celsius Holdings’ quarterly revenues is pegged at $707.2 million, which calls for a 166.1% jump from the prior-year quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Celsius Holdings’ quarterly earnings per share is pegged at 27 cents compared with breakeven results in the year-ago period. CELH has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 5.4%, on average.

Corteva CTVA currently has an Earnings ESP of +4.82% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is likely to register top-line growth when it reports third-quarter 2025 numbers. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Corteva’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $2.49 billion, which implies a 7% increase from the prior-year quarter. 

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Corteva’s bottom line is pegged at a loss of 49 cents, which is in line with the year-ago period. CTVA has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 4.4%, on average.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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