Orchid Island Q3 Earnings Coming Up: What's in Store for the Stock?

Orchid Island Capital, Inc. ORC is slated to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 23, after market close.

Its second-quarter 2025 results reflected a year-over-year improvement in average asset yield on its portfolio. However, higher expenses remained an undermining factor.

Orchid Island has a decent earnings surprise history. Its earnings outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average earnings surprise being 103.06%.

Orchid Island Capital, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Orchid Island Capital, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Orchid Island Capital, Inc. Quote

In the past seven days, the consensus estimate for earnings has been unchanged at 15 cents per share against a reported loss of 5 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.

Major Factors to Impact ORC’s Q3 Performance

Despite the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut in September 2025, mortgage rates did not decline significantly. In the third quarter, mortgage rates remained range bound. As such, refinancing activities and origination volumes witnessed moderate growth.

Amid this backdrop, a large part of Orchid Capital’s mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings is anticipated to have experienced slightly higher constant prepayment rates. This is likely to have positively impacted net premium amortization in the third quarter, thereby supporting growth in interest income and average asset yield.

During the third quarter of 2025, the primary-secondary spread remained slightly wider than in the preceding quarter, reflecting modest fluctuations in mortgage basis spreads toward the end of the period. As such, ORC’s gain-on-sale margins likely remained stable during the quarter.

Further, agency MBS spreads tightened in the third quarter, given lower interest rate volatility. As such, ORC is likely to have seen some improvement in its book value per share in the to-be-reported quarter.

What Our Model Unveils for Orchid Island

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for ORC this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Orchid Island has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: Orchid Island currently carries a Zacks Rank of 3.

REIT Stocks to Consider

Here are a couple of REIT stocks that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this time:

The Earnings ESP for Arbor Realty Trust ABR is +10.71% and it carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The company is likely to report third-quarter 2025 results in the coming days. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Over the past week, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for ABR’s quarterly earnings has remained unchanged at 28 cents per share.

NETSTREIT Corp. NTST is also expected to release third-quarter 2025 numbers soon. The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.00% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present.

Quarterly earnings estimates for NTST have remained unchanged at 33 cents per share over the past week.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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