Union Pacific to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 results on Oct. 23, before market open.

Union Pacific’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the trailing four quarters, the average beat being 2.02%. However, the company’s earnings lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the remaining two quarters

Let’s see how things have shaped up for Union Pacific this earnings season.

Factors to Note Ahead of UNP’s Q3 Earnings Release

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 revenues is pegged at $6.23 billion, indicating a 2.34% upside from the year-ago actual. Our estimate for freight revenues (which accounts for the majority portion of total revenues) is pegged at $5.86 billion, which indicates an increase of 1.7% from third-quarter 2024 actuals. However, the consensus mark for other revenues is pegged at $311.3 million, implying a 3.6% decrease from third-quarter 2024 actuals.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 0.34% upward in the past 60 days and is pegged at $2.99 per share. Additionally, the consensus mark implies an 8.73% uptick from the year-ago actual.

UNP’s efforts to cut costs to combat the revenue weakness (due to the freight market downturn) are expected to have aided bottom-line performance in the quarter to be reported. Due to cost cuts and improved operational efficiency, we expect operating expenses to decline in the third quarter of 2025 from the year-ago actuals.

UNP is also focused on rewarding its shareholders. Strong free cash flow supports the shareholder-friendly activities of the company. Union Pacific's long-term capital allocation strategy remains unchanged, with a capital plan of $3.4 billion and share repurchases ranging from $4 to $4.5 billion. Apart from reflecting the company’s financial bliss, such shareholder-friendly movesboost investor confidence and positively impacts the bottom line.

What Our Model Says About UNP

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Union Pacific this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Union Pacific has an Earnings ESP of -0.16% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

Highlights of UNP’s Q2 Earnings

Union Pacific's second-quarter 2025 earnings (excluding 12 cents from non-recurring items) of $3.03 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.91. The bottom line improved 10.6% on a year-over-year basis. This year-over-year improvement was due to strong operational efficiency.

Operating revenues of $6.2 billion marginally beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.1 billion. The top line improved 2.5% on a year-over-year basis, owing to higher volumes and solid core pricing gains.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks from the broader Zacks Transportation sector that investors may consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.

Wabtec Corporation WAB has an Earnings ESP of +1.32% and a Zacks Rank #2 at present. WAB is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Oct. 22. You can seethe complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Wabtec has an impressive earnings surprise track record, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters (missed the mark in the remaining quarter), with the average beat being 5.41%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for WAB’s third-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised 1.60% upward in the past 90 days.

Shares of Wabtec have gained 10.6% over the past year. WAB’s third-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to grow 13.50% year over year. 

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD) has an Earnings ESP of +1.43% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. EXPD is scheduled to report third-quarter 2025 earnings on Nov. 4.  

Expeditors has an impressive earnings surprise track record, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the last four quarters, with the average beat being 15.30%.

Expeditors’ third-quarter 2025 earnings are expected to decline 14.11% year over year. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EXPD’s third-quarter 2025 earnings has been revised upward by 2.94% to $1.40 per share in the past 60 days.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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