NextNav Inc. (NN): A Bull Case Theory

We came across a bullish thesis on NextNav Inc. on Century Egg Credit’s Substack by Century Egg. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on NN. NextNav Inc.'s share was trading at $14.26 as of October 8th.

NextNav’s 5G PNT proposal for the 902–928 MHz band is framed as a coexistence strategy with federal, Part 15, and N-LMS incumbents, emphasizing protection of existing users while deploying a high-power 5G network. Technically, the plan would dramatically increase downlink power in the 918–928 MHz slice, creating a ~60–70 dB gap relative to typical Part 15 devices, which makes long-term coexistence unlikely. The company proposes mitigation measures, including stricter emission masks, band-edge placement, and retuning support for N-LMS tolling and rail systems, while Part 15 devices would largely migrate to the 907–918 MHz slice.

Federal use of the band is diverse and persistent, spanning DoD radar, UAV telemetry, NOAA wind profilers, border security, and other site-based operations. NextNav coordinates closely with federal agencies, retaining technical consultants to ensure no harmful interference occurs, though geographical carveouts and real-time muting may be necessary, potentially limiting spectrum value for MNO partners.

Part 18 ISM devices remain largely unaffected due to their localized operation, while Amateur radio users maintain secondary status. NextNav supports coexistence via field modeling, San Francisco case studies, and technology-specific analyses of Part 15 systems, but independent real-world testing is needed to validate assumptions.

Overall, while coexistence is feasible for some users, the power disparity and macro-cell design suggest Part 15 devices will eventually be displaced from the 918–928 MHz downlink, effectively consolidating 5G PNT and federal operations in the primary slice. The proposal offers a path to a high-efficiency 5G positioning network, but success hinges on regulatory approval, coordination with incumbents, and verification through real-world deployment, highlighting both a significant growth opportunity for NextNav and potential challenges for unlicensed device operators.

Previously we covered a bullish thesis on QUALCOMM Incorporated (QCOM) by Christopher Kirincic in May 2025, which highlighted the company’s leadership in 5G, Snapdragon processors, and expansion into automotive, AI, and IoT markets with strong licensing cash flow. The company's stock price has appreciated approximately by 10% since our coverage. Century Egg shares a different but emphasizes NextNav’s regulatory-driven 5G PNT deployment and spectrum coexistence strategy.

NextNav Inc. is not on our list of the 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 33 hedge fund portfolios held NN at the end of the second quarter which was 32 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of NN as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.

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Disclosure: None.