Nucor to Report Q3 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Nucor Corporation NUE is set to release third-quarter 2025 results after the closing bell on Oct. 27.

The U.S. steel giant surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once. It has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of roughly 27.4%, on average. It posted a negative earnings surprise of 0.8% in the last reported quarter. Lower earnings across the segments are likely to have hurt NUE’s third-quarter results.

Nucor’s shares have lost 2.1% over the past year, compared with the Zacks Steel Producers industry’s 10.2% rise.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

What do NUE’s Revenue Estimates Say?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter consolidated revenues for Nucor is currently pegged at $8,162.8 million, reflecting a year-over-year rise of 9.7%.

Factors at Play for NUE Stock

Lower segment earnings are likely to have adversely impacted NUE’s performance in the September quarter. Nucor, last month, said that it expects earnings to decrease across all three operating segments compared to the previous quarter. The steel mills segment is expected to have seen decreased earnings due to lower volumes and margin compression, while the steel products segment’s earnings are likely to have decreased from higher average costs per ton as pricing and demand remain stable. The raw materials segment is also expected to have earned lower profits due to weaker profitability in scrap processing operations.

Meanwhile, U.S. steel prices retreated in the third quarter amid cautious buyer activity. The Trump administration's imposition of a 25% tariff on all steel imports into the United States in March 2025 led to a surge in benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices to a peak of nearly $950 per short ton. While the administration's early June doubling of steel tariffs to 50% and the consequent steel mill price hikes triggered only a temporary lift, these failed to effectively drive up HRC prices further to new highs as intended. Overall demand weakness and abundant steel mill output put a pause on a sustained price rally, dragging HRC prices to around $800 per short ton. 

Despite this pullback, stable selling prices are expected to have supported Nucor’s performance in the quarter to be reported. Our estimate for third-quarter average sales price per ton for the company’s steel mills unit stands at $1,041, stable sequentially.

Nucor Corporation Price and EPS Surprise

Nucor Corporation price-eps-surprise | Nucor Corporation Quote

What Our Model Unveils for NUE Stock

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Nucor this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. But that’s not the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP for NUE is -1.28%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third quarter is currently pegged at $2.16. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: NUE currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).

Basic Materials Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are some companies in the basic materials space you may want to consider as our model shows they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM, scheduled to release earnings on Oct. 29, has an Earnings ESP of +11.44% and carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The consensus estimate for AEM’s earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at $1.76.

Kinross Gold Corporation KGC, scheduled to release earnings on Nov. 4, has an Earnings ESP of +13.13%.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for KGC's earnings for the third quarter is currently pegged at 33 cents. KGC currently carries a Zacks Rank #1. 

Barrick Mining Corporation B, slated to release earnings on Nov. 10, has an Earnings ESP of +2.93% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present.

The consensus mark for B’s third-quarter earnings is currently pegged at 57 cents.

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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